Recent extensions of the US-Iran ceasefire through mid-2026, alongside active review of peace proposals involving sanctions relief and nuclear restrictions, have strengthened trader consensus that a full-scale ground invasion remains unlikely before 2027. US operations have emphasized airstrikes on nuclear and military targets, naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and troop deployments for pressure rather than occupation, reflecting Pentagon assessments of high costs and escalation risks. Ongoing talks, including a 14-point framework under discussion in May, align with historical preferences for maximum pressure via sanctions and diplomacy over direct combat. Key catalysts ahead include Iranian responses to US terms and any breakdown in negotiations that could alter the current 69.5% implied probability for no invasion.