Traders assign near-certain probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the extremely compressed timeframe and absence of observable large-scale PLA amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command restructuring required for such an operation. Recent months have featured only routine gray-zone activity, including moderated air defense identification zone incursions and China Coast Guard patrols, alongside Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises in early August 2026 testing resilience against blockade or landing scenarios. U.S. intelligence assessments from earlier in 2026 downgraded near-term invasion risks, while leadership issues within the People’s Liberation Army have further constrained readiness timelines. A sudden major cross-strait incident, rapid U.S. policy shift, or unforeseen leadership change could still alter trajectories before the resolution date.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
<1% Chance
$1,902,151 Vol.
$1,902,151 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Ja
<1% Chance
$1,902,151 Vol.
$1,902,151 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign near-certain probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the extremely compressed timeframe and absence of observable large-scale PLA amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command restructuring required for such an operation. Recent months have featured only routine gray-zone activity, including moderated air defense identification zone incursions and China Coast Guard patrols, alongside Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises in early August 2026 testing resilience against blockade or landing scenarios. U.S. intelligence assessments from earlier in 2026 downgraded near-term invasion risks, while leadership issues within the People’s Liberation Army have further constrained readiness timelines. A sudden major cross-strait incident, rapid U.S. policy shift, or unforeseen leadership change could still alter trajectories before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volumen
$1,902,151Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign near-certain probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the extremely compressed timeframe and absence of observable large-scale PLA amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command restructuring required for such an operation. Recent months have featured only routine gray-zone activity, including moderated air defense identification zone incursions and China Coast Guard patrols, alongside Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises in early August 2026 testing resilience against blockade or landing scenarios. U.S. intelligence assessments from earlier in 2026 downgraded near-term invasion risks, while leadership issues within the People’s Liberation Army have further constrained readiness timelines. A sudden major cross-strait incident, rapid U.S. policy shift, or unforeseen leadership change could still alter trajectories before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$1,902,151Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign near-certain probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the extremely compressed timeframe and absence of observable large-scale PLA amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command restructuring required for such an operation. Recent months have featured only routine gray-zone activity, including moderated air defense identification zone incursions and China Coast Guard patrols, alongside Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises in early August 2026 testing resilience against blockade or landing scenarios. U.S. intelligence assessments from earlier in 2026 downgraded near-term invasion risks, while leadership issues within the People’s Liberation Army have further constrained readiness timelines. A sudden major cross-strait incident, rapid U.S. policy shift, or unforeseen leadership change could still alter trajectories before the resolution date.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen