The short remaining window until December 31, 2026, combined with sustained but non-invasion Chinese military pressure, underpins the 97.9 percent trader consensus against a full-scale invasion. Recent naval deployments involving over 50 vessels, including the Liaoning carrier group east of the Philippines, represent coordinated operations beyond the first island chain but align with routine training and gray-zone coercion rather than amphibious assault preparations. U.S., Japanese, and Philippine joint exercises, alongside ongoing U.S. military planning for potential 2027 contingencies, reinforce deterrence without evidence of imminent escalation. Intelligence assessments continue to indicate no fixed timeline for unification by force, while Beijing emphasizes cognitive and influence operations ahead of Taiwan’s local elections. Scenarios that could still shift odds include abrupt leadership decisions or major miscalculations during drills, though both remain low-probability in the final weeks.