Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, halting verifiable uranium enrichment and leaving the status of its pre-strike 60% enriched stockpile unconfirmed due to suspended IAEA access since mid-2025. Satellite imagery shows reconstruction efforts at weapons-related sites, yet US assessments indicate roughly one year would be needed for weaponization if Iran decided to proceed, while ongoing US-Iran ceasefire talks emphasize limits on enrichment capacity. Traders assign 95.2% probability to no nuclear test before 2027, reflecting these degraded capabilities and diplomatic pressures. Late-breaking escalation, undetected reconstitution of centrifuges, or collapse of negotiations could still shift timelines.