**US and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while also targeting weaponization-related sites.** US intelligence assessments as of May 2026 concluded that these operations pushed Iran's estimated timeline to produce a nuclear weapon back to nine to twelve months, with significant barriers remaining to weaponization and testing. IAEA reports through June 2026 highlight restricted access and unresolved safeguards issues, while ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran have focused on limiting enrichment and accounting for stockpiles. These military setbacks and verification constraints underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains highly improbable absent major undetected reconstitution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Iran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Ja
5% Chance
$235,602 Vol.
$235,602 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
5% Chance
$235,602 Vol.
$235,602 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**US and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while also targeting weaponization-related sites.** US intelligence assessments as of May 2026 concluded that these operations pushed Iran's estimated timeline to produce a nuclear weapon back to nine to twelve months, with significant barriers remaining to weaponization and testing. IAEA reports through June 2026 highlight restricted access and unresolved safeguards issues, while ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran have focused on limiting enrichment and accounting for stockpiles. These military setbacks and verification constraints underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains highly improbable absent major undetected reconstitution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$235,602Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**US and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while also targeting weaponization-related sites.** US intelligence assessments as of May 2026 concluded that these operations pushed Iran's estimated timeline to produce a nuclear weapon back to nine to twelve months, with significant barriers remaining to weaponization and testing. IAEA reports through June 2026 highlight restricted access and unresolved safeguards issues, while ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran have focused on limiting enrichment and accounting for stockpiles. These military setbacks and verification constraints underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains highly improbable absent major undetected reconstitution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$235,602Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while also targeting weaponization-related sites.** US intelligence assessments as of May 2026 concluded that these operations pushed Iran's estimated timeline to produce a nuclear weapon back to nine to twelve months, with significant barriers remaining to weaponization and testing. IAEA reports through June 2026 highlight restricted access and unresolved safeguards issues, while ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran have focused on limiting enrichment and accounting for stockpiles. These military setbacks and verification constraints underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains highly improbable absent major undetected reconstitution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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