Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and disrupting weaponization-related sites. US intelligence assessments indicate the timeline for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon has been extended to roughly nine to twelve months or longer, with IAEA reports confirming significant infrastructure losses and reduced operational capacity. Ongoing diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and monitoring further constrain rapid reconstitution efforts. While Iran has shown some signs of attempted repairs at select locations, experts assess substantial technical, detection, and resource barriers remain through 2026. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include undetected parallel programs, accelerated rebuilding amid leadership changes, or major escalations that prompt a policy shift before the end of 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Iran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Ja
5% Chance
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
5% Chance
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and disrupting weaponization-related sites. US intelligence assessments indicate the timeline for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon has been extended to roughly nine to twelve months or longer, with IAEA reports confirming significant infrastructure losses and reduced operational capacity. Ongoing diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and monitoring further constrain rapid reconstitution efforts. While Iran has shown some signs of attempted repairs at select locations, experts assess substantial technical, detection, and resource barriers remain through 2026. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include undetected parallel programs, accelerated rebuilding amid leadership changes, or major escalations that prompt a policy shift before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$246,407Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and disrupting weaponization-related sites. US intelligence assessments indicate the timeline for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon has been extended to roughly nine to twelve months or longer, with IAEA reports confirming significant infrastructure losses and reduced operational capacity. Ongoing diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and monitoring further constrain rapid reconstitution efforts. While Iran has shown some signs of attempted repairs at select locations, experts assess substantial technical, detection, and resource barriers remain through 2026. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include undetected parallel programs, accelerated rebuilding amid leadership changes, or major escalations that prompt a policy shift before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$246,407Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and disrupting weaponization-related sites. US intelligence assessments indicate the timeline for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon has been extended to roughly nine to twelve months or longer, with IAEA reports confirming significant infrastructure losses and reduced operational capacity. Ongoing diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and monitoring further constrain rapid reconstitution efforts. While Iran has shown some signs of attempted repairs at select locations, experts assess substantial technical, detection, and resource barriers remain through 2026. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include undetected parallel programs, accelerated rebuilding amid leadership changes, or major escalations that prompt a policy shift before the end of 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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