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Geopolitics·Nuclear

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

icon for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Geopolitics·Nuclear

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Dez. 31

Dez. 31

11% Chance
Polymarket

$192,204 Vol.

11% Chance
Polymarket

$192,204 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s continued participation in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, including submission of multiple working papers, alongside ongoing bilateral nuclear negotiations with the United States, has anchored trader expectations against withdrawal before 2027. Repeated Iranian parliamentary and foreign ministry statements since mid-2025 have framed potential exit as a response to strikes on nuclear sites and sanctions pressure, yet no bill has advanced to formal passage or implementation. Recent reports of a June 2026 memorandum of understanding and planned 60-day talks on enrichment limits and verification instead signal diplomatic engagement that preserves NPT obligations in the near term. These developments, combined with the short remaining window and historical pattern of threats without follow-through, underpin the 88% implied probability that Iran will remain a state party through the end of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$192,204
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s continued participation in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, including submission of multiple working papers, alongside ongoing bilateral nuclear negotiations with the United States, has anchored trader expectations against withdrawal before 2027. Repeated Iranian parliamentary and foreign ministry statements since mid-2025 have framed potential exit as a response to strikes on nuclear sites and sanctions pressure, yet no bill has advanced to formal passage or implementation. Recent reports of a June 2026 memorandum of understanding and planned 60-day talks on enrichment limits and verification instead signal diplomatic engagement that preserves NPT obligations in the near term. These developments, combined with the short remaining window and historical pattern of threats without follow-through, underpin the 88% implied probability that Iran will remain a state party through the end of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$192,204
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 11% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 11¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 11%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $192.2K generiert, seit der Markt am Nov 5, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" liegt bei 11% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 11% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

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