Diplomatic negotiations over Iran's nuclear program continue to produce mixed signals that sustain a narrow edge for the "Yes" outcome at 52.5 percent. Recent IAEA reports on expanding uranium stockpiles and enrichment levels, combined with Iranian officials' conditional offers tied to sanctions relief, have kept probabilities competitive. Parallel talks involving the United States, European powers, and other mediators introduce both potential pathways to agreement and risks of renewed deadlock. Historical precedents of prolonged bargaining and the influence of regional security dynamics further contribute to uncertainty, leaving room for developments such as verified inspection commitments or breakthrough statements to shift trader consensus before the December 31 deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$194,984 Vol.
$194,984 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$194,984 Vol.
$194,984 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Diplomatic negotiations over Iran's nuclear program continue to produce mixed signals that sustain a narrow edge for the "Yes" outcome at 52.5 percent. Recent IAEA reports on expanding uranium stockpiles and enrichment levels, combined with Iranian officials' conditional offers tied to sanctions relief, have kept probabilities competitive. Parallel talks involving the United States, European powers, and other mediators introduce both potential pathways to agreement and risks of renewed deadlock. Historical precedents of prolonged bargaining and the influence of regional security dynamics further contribute to uncertainty, leaving room for developments such as verified inspection commitments or breakthrough statements to shift trader consensus before the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volumen
$194,984Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Diplomatic negotiations over Iran's nuclear program continue to produce mixed signals that sustain a narrow edge for the "Yes" outcome at 52.5 percent. Recent IAEA reports on expanding uranium stockpiles and enrichment levels, combined with Iranian officials' conditional offers tied to sanctions relief, have kept probabilities competitive. Parallel talks involving the United States, European powers, and other mediators introduce both potential pathways to agreement and risks of renewed deadlock. Historical precedents of prolonged bargaining and the influence of regional security dynamics further contribute to uncertainty, leaving room for developments such as verified inspection commitments or breakthrough statements to shift trader consensus before the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$194,984Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic negotiations over Iran's nuclear program continue to produce mixed signals that sustain a narrow edge for the "Yes" outcome at 52.5 percent. Recent IAEA reports on expanding uranium stockpiles and enrichment levels, combined with Iranian officials' conditional offers tied to sanctions relief, have kept probabilities competitive. Parallel talks involving the United States, European powers, and other mediators introduce both potential pathways to agreement and risks of renewed deadlock. Historical precedents of prolonged bargaining and the influence of regional security dynamics further contribute to uncertainty, leaving room for developments such as verified inspection commitments or breakthrough statements to shift trader consensus before the December 31 deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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