Diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran remain stalled over the disposition of Iran’s estimated 440 kg stockpile of up to 60% enriched uranium, much of which survived or remains unaccounted for following 2025–2026 strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Iran has repeatedly rejected any physical transfer abroad, with officials stating that not a single gram will leave the country and framing the material as a national asset to be handled only through on-site IAEA-supervised downblending. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding left the issue for further negotiation, but subsequent mediation efforts, including Pakistan’s army chief visit to Tehran in October 2026, have not produced agreement on removal. Vice President Vance has emphasized “meaningful” reductions in enrichment capacity as a condition for broader de-escalation and sanctions relief, yet no verified handover to U.S. control has occurred. These factors keep the trader consensus on U.S. acquisition by year-end low.