Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict and associated blockade continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with vessel transits falling to single digits in September 2026 versus a normal range of roughly 80-140 per day. Market-implied odds of 80.5% for no return to normal levels in 2026 reflect trader assessments that insurance costs, security risks, and Iranian control measures will sustain disruptions through year-end, outweighing any partial ceasefire effects observed earlier. Recent ship-tracking data showing minimal transits reinforce this view, while lower-probability monthly outcomes price in only modest near-term de-escalation potential. Key swing factors include further diplomatic signals or military developments that could alter risk premiums for oil tankers.