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Economy·AAA

Will gas hit __ by end of July?

icon for Will gas hit __ by end of July?
Economy·AAA

Will gas hit __ by end of July?

Juli 31

Juli 31

NEU
31. Juli 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $5.00

$0 Vol.

50%

↑ $4.50

$0 Vol.

31%

↑ $4.25

$0 Vol.

41%

↑ $4.00

$0 Vol.

46%

↑ $3.90

$0 Vol.

49%

↓ $3.70

$0 Vol.

55%

↓ $3.60

$0 Vol.

51%

↓ $3.50

$0 Vol.

50%

↓ $3.25

$0 Vol.

48%

↓ $3.00

$0 Vol.

48%

↓ $2.50

$0 Vol.

43%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Recent declines in global crude oil prices below $75 per barrel have been the dominant driver pushing U.S. retail gasoline averages lower, with the national regular price at approximately $3.85 per gallon as of June 30, 2026, down over 50 cents from early-June peaks amid reduced geopolitical supply risks. Crude accounts for roughly 45-50% of pump prices, so softer benchmark WTI and Brent levels, combined with ample refinery runs and rising inventories, have outweighed seasonal summer demand from July 4th travel. EIA forecasts reinforce the trend, projecting a 2026 national average near $2.90 per gallon as global supply growth outpaces demand. Trader-implied odds on near-term thresholds therefore reflect expectations that prices will remain range-bound or drift modestly lower through month-end absent fresh OPEC+ cuts, refinery outages, or weather-driven demand spikes, though volatility around holiday consumption and any inventory surprises could still shift sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
31. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 1, 2026, 3:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Recent declines in global crude oil prices below $75 per barrel have been the dominant driver pushing U.S. retail gasoline averages lower, with the national regular price at approximately $3.85 per gallon as of June 30, 2026, down over 50 cents from early-June peaks amid reduced geopolitical supply risks. Crude accounts for roughly 45-50% of pump prices, so softer benchmark WTI and Brent levels, combined with ample refinery runs and rising inventories, have outweighed seasonal summer demand from July 4th travel. EIA forecasts reinforce the trend, projecting a 2026 national average near $2.90 per gallon as global supply growth outpaces demand. Trader-implied odds on near-term thresholds therefore reflect expectations that prices will remain range-bound or drift modestly lower through month-end absent fresh OPEC+ cuts, refinery outages, or weather-driven demand spikes, though volatility around holiday consumption and any inventory surprises could still shift sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
31. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 1, 2026, 3:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Will gas hit __ by end of July?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 11 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „↓ $3.70" mit 55%, gefolgt von „↓ $3.60" mit 52%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 55¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 55% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Will gas hit __ by end of July?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Jul 1, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Will gas hit __ by end of July?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 11 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Will gas hit __ by end of July?" ist „↓ $3.70" mit 55%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 55% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „↓ $3.60" mit 52%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Will gas hit __ by end of July?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.