Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting a resilient U.S. economy and inflation readings that have remained above the 2% target through recent releases. The FOMC’s latest communications and dot-plot projections continue to emphasize a data-dependent approach favoring a higher-for-longer federal funds rate, supported by solid nonfarm payrolls, contained unemployment, and steady Treasury yields that show limited easing priced in for the balance of the year. This consensus draws from the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where capital at risk incentivizes accurate assessment of monetary policy paths. A material slowdown in growth or faster disinflation in forthcoming CPI and employment data could still alter the outlook, though current momentum suggests such developments would require significant deterioration to shift the market-implied odds materially.