Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 97.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by April's consumer price index surging 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023—and resilient labor data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The FOMC held steady in March (11-1 vote) and April amid rising dissents but no policy shift, aligning with the March dot plot's median projection for just one 2026 cut later in the year. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects sticky inflation and economic strength, though a sharp May CPI cooldown or weakening jobs prints ahead of the June 10-11 meeting could challenge the positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertPause–Pause–Pause 97.5%
Pause–Pause–Senkung 1.9%
Sonstiges <1%
$1,091,134 Vol.
$1,091,134 Vol.
17. Juni 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
98%
Pause–Pause–Senkung
2%
Sonstiges
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 97.5%
Pause–Pause–Senkung 1.9%
Sonstiges <1%
$1,091,134 Vol.
$1,091,134 Vol.
17. Juni 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$60,390 Vol.
98%
Pause–Pause–Senkung
$39,767 Vol.
2%
Sonstiges
$245,637 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 97.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by April's consumer price index surging 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023—and resilient labor data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The FOMC held steady in March (11-1 vote) and April amid rising dissents but no policy shift, aligning with the March dot plot's median projection for just one 2026 cut later in the year. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects sticky inflation and economic strength, though a sharp May CPI cooldown or weakening jobs prints ahead of the June 10-11 meeting could challenge the positioning.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,091,134Enddatum
17. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 97.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by April's consumer price index surging 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023—and resilient labor data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The FOMC held steady in March (11-1 vote) and April amid rising dissents but no policy shift, aligning with the March dot plot's median projection for just one 2026 cut later in the year. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects sticky inflation and economic strength, though a sharp May CPI cooldown or weakening jobs prints ahead of the June 10-11 meeting could challenge the positioning.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,091,134Enddatum
17. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 97.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by April's consumer price index surging 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023—and resilient labor data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The FOMC held steady in March (11-1 vote) and April amid rising dissents but no policy shift, aligning with the March dot plot's median projection for just one 2026 cut later in the year. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects sticky inflation and economic strength, though a sharp May CPI cooldown or weakening jobs prints ahead of the June 10-11 meeting could challenge the positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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