The Federal Reserve's September 2026 FOMC decision lifted the target range to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike since 2023, amid sticky inflation with median PCE projections at 3.7% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027. The updated dot plot shows a 4.1% median for year-end 2026 and 2027, signaling one additional 25 basis point increase this year and steady policy thereafter, with inflation not expected back at 2% until 2029. Recent official comments, including from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, point to potential further tightening into 2027 if growth and price pressures remain resilient. Key near-term catalysts include the October 28-29 and December 8-9 FOMC meetings, alongside incoming CPI, PCE, and employment data that could shift market-implied odds on the peak rate before 2027.