Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with core PCE near 3.3% in June 2026 and recent CPI prints showing modest reacceleration, has shifted trader expectations toward possible policy tightening. Geopolitical energy price shocks from Middle East tensions and a divided FOMC—with three dissents favoring a hike at the July meeting and nine of 18 participants projecting higher rates by year-end—have elevated the market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point increase in 2026 to 56.5%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability over forward guidance has reinforced hawkish sentiment, though upcoming September CPI data and the next FOMC decision remain key near-term catalysts that could alter consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
56% Chance
$7,153,647 Vol.
$7,153,647 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Ja
56% Chance
$7,153,647 Vol.
$7,153,647 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with core PCE near 3.3% in June 2026 and recent CPI prints showing modest reacceleration, has shifted trader expectations toward possible policy tightening. Geopolitical energy price shocks from Middle East tensions and a divided FOMC—with three dissents favoring a hike at the July meeting and nine of 18 participants projecting higher rates by year-end—have elevated the market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point increase in 2026 to 56.5%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability over forward guidance has reinforced hawkish sentiment, though upcoming September CPI data and the next FOMC decision remain key near-term catalysts that could alter consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$7,153,647Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with core PCE near 3.3% in June 2026 and recent CPI prints showing modest reacceleration, has shifted trader expectations toward possible policy tightening. Geopolitical energy price shocks from Middle East tensions and a divided FOMC—with three dissents favoring a hike at the July meeting and nine of 18 participants projecting higher rates by year-end—have elevated the market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point increase in 2026 to 56.5%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability over forward guidance has reinforced hawkish sentiment, though upcoming September CPI data and the next FOMC decision remain key near-term catalysts that could alter consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,153,647Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with core PCE near 3.3% in June 2026 and recent CPI prints showing modest reacceleration, has shifted trader expectations toward possible policy tightening. Geopolitical energy price shocks from Middle East tensions and a divided FOMC—with three dissents favoring a hike at the July meeting and nine of 18 participants projecting higher rates by year-end—have elevated the market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point increase in 2026 to 56.5%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability over forward guidance has reinforced hawkish sentiment, though upcoming September CPI data and the next FOMC decision remain key near-term catalysts that could alter consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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