**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have anchored expectations for steady policy at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range through the July, September, and October FOMC meetings.** The July 29 decision to hold rates (9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike) reflected solid economic growth, 4.2% unemployment, and energy-driven price pressures, shifting market-implied odds away from cuts. Futures and prediction markets now embed a higher probability of hikes later in 2026, elevating the “Other” outcome to 62.5% as traders price in mixed paths that include rate increases. The September 15–16 meeting, featuring updated projections and the dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst that could clarify whether inflation moderates enough to sustain the pause consensus or prompts further tightening.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOther 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$657,789 Vol.
$657,789 Vol.
28. Okt. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
30%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
63%
Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$657,789 Vol.
$657,789 Vol.
28. Okt. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$220,903 Vol.
30%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$50,978 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$31,752 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$23,264 Vol.
1%
Other
$287,403 Vol.
63%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have anchored expectations for steady policy at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range through the July, September, and October FOMC meetings.** The July 29 decision to hold rates (9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike) reflected solid economic growth, 4.2% unemployment, and energy-driven price pressures, shifting market-implied odds away from cuts. Futures and prediction markets now embed a higher probability of hikes later in 2026, elevating the “Other” outcome to 62.5% as traders price in mixed paths that include rate increases. The September 15–16 meeting, featuring updated projections and the dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst that could clarify whether inflation moderates enough to sustain the pause consensus or prompts further tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volumen
$657,789Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have anchored expectations for steady policy at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range through the July, September, and October FOMC meetings.** The July 29 decision to hold rates (9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike) reflected solid economic growth, 4.2% unemployment, and energy-driven price pressures, shifting market-implied odds away from cuts. Futures and prediction markets now embed a higher probability of hikes later in 2026, elevating the “Other” outcome to 62.5% as traders price in mixed paths that include rate increases. The September 15–16 meeting, featuring updated projections and the dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst that could clarify whether inflation moderates enough to sustain the pause consensus or prompts further tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$657,789Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have anchored expectations for steady policy at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range through the July, September, and October FOMC meetings.** The July 29 decision to hold rates (9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike) reflected solid economic growth, 4.2% unemployment, and energy-driven price pressures, shifting market-implied odds away from cuts. Futures and prediction markets now embed a higher probability of hikes later in 2026, elevating the “Other” outcome to 62.5% as traders price in mixed paths that include rate increases. The September 15–16 meeting, featuring updated projections and the dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst that could clarify whether inflation moderates enough to sustain the pause consensus or prompts further tightening.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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