Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's January 2027 policy decision, with no change at 58% and a 25 basis point hike at 23.5% as the leading implied outcomes. August CPI held at 3.4% year-over-year while core readings remained above the 2% target amid energy price pressures, and payroll gains of 162,000 alongside a 4.1% unemployment rate underscored economic strength. These factors have shifted market-implied odds toward tighter policy relative to earlier forecasts, as participants weigh persistent supply shocks against the FOMC's dual mandate. The upcoming September dot plot and subsequent data releases will likely refine probabilities ahead of the January meeting.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNo change 58%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 24%
25 bps decrease 11%
50+ bps decrease 4.6%
$73,246 Vol.
$73,246 Vol.
27. Jan. 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
11%
No change
58%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
24%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
2%
No change 58%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 24%
25 bps decrease 11%
50+ bps decrease 4.6%
$73,246 Vol.
$73,246 Vol.
27. Jan. 2027
50+ bps decrease
$14,016 Vol.
5%
25 bps decrease
$15,292 Vol.
11%
No change
$21,353 Vol.
58%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$17,235 Vol.
24%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$5,349 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's January 2027 policy decision, with no change at 58% and a 25 basis point hike at 23.5% as the leading implied outcomes. August CPI held at 3.4% year-over-year while core readings remained above the 2% target amid energy price pressures, and payroll gains of 162,000 alongside a 4.1% unemployment rate underscored economic strength. These factors have shifted market-implied odds toward tighter policy relative to earlier forecasts, as participants weigh persistent supply shocks against the FOMC's dual mandate. The upcoming September dot plot and subsequent data releases will likely refine probabilities ahead of the January meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volumen
$73,246Enddatum
27. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's January 2027 policy decision, with no change at 58% and a 25 basis point hike at 23.5% as the leading implied outcomes. August CPI held at 3.4% year-over-year while core readings remained above the 2% target amid energy price pressures, and payroll gains of 162,000 alongside a 4.1% unemployment rate underscored economic strength. These factors have shifted market-implied odds toward tighter policy relative to earlier forecasts, as participants weigh persistent supply shocks against the FOMC's dual mandate. The upcoming September dot plot and subsequent data releases will likely refine probabilities ahead of the January meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$73,246Enddatum
27. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's January 2027 policy decision, with no change at 58% and a 25 basis point hike at 23.5% as the leading implied outcomes. August CPI held at 3.4% year-over-year while core readings remained above the 2% target amid energy price pressures, and payroll gains of 162,000 alongside a 4.1% unemployment rate underscored economic strength. These factors have shifted market-implied odds toward tighter policy relative to earlier forecasts, as participants weigh persistent supply shocks against the FOMC's dual mandate. The upcoming September dot plot and subsequent data releases will likely refine probabilities ahead of the January meeting.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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