Market-implied odds for the September–December 2026 FOMC cycle remain tightly clustered around 25.5% for the three leading paths—Hike–Pause–Hike, Hike–Pause–Pause, and Pause–Hike–Pause—signaling divided trader views on the pace of policy easing. Recent July and August inflation prints showed persistent core CPI above 2.5% while labor-market data reflected a gradual cooling in payrolls and a slight uptick in unemployment, leaving the Fed’s dual-mandate balance uncertain. Market pricing continues to embed expectations for at most one 25-basis-point hike this fall, tempered by Treasury yield volatility and forward guidance that has stressed data dependence. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release, the next employment report, and the September 16–17 FOMC statement, any of which could shift the relative probabilities among the contested sequences.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHike–Pause–Hike 23%
Zinsschritt–Pause–Pause 21%
Pause–Pause–Erhöhung 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 14%
NEU
NEU
9. Dez. 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
23%
Zinsschritt–Pause–Pause
21%
Anheben–Anheben–Anheben
7%
Hike–Hike–Pause
14%
Pause–Pause–Erhöhung
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
11%
Pause–Anhebung–Anhebung
6%
Pause–Anhebung–Pause
10%
Sonstiges
7%
Hike–Pause–Hike 23%
Zinsschritt–Pause–Pause 21%
Pause–Pause–Erhöhung 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 14%
NEU
NEU
9. Dez. 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$40 Vol.
23%
Zinsschritt–Pause–Pause
$41 Vol.
21%
Anheben–Anheben–Anheben
$25 Vol.
7%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$25 Vol.
14%
Pause–Pause–Erhöhung
$25 Vol.
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$25 Vol.
11%
Pause–Anhebung–Anhebung
$25 Vol.
6%
Pause–Anhebung–Pause
$42 Vol.
10%
Sonstiges
$25 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds for the September–December 2026 FOMC cycle remain tightly clustered around 25.5% for the three leading paths—Hike–Pause–Hike, Hike–Pause–Pause, and Pause–Hike–Pause—signaling divided trader views on the pace of policy easing. Recent July and August inflation prints showed persistent core CPI above 2.5% while labor-market data reflected a gradual cooling in payrolls and a slight uptick in unemployment, leaving the Fed’s dual-mandate balance uncertain. Market pricing continues to embed expectations for at most one 25-basis-point hike this fall, tempered by Treasury yield volatility and forward guidance that has stressed data dependence. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release, the next employment report, and the September 16–17 FOMC statement, any of which could shift the relative probabilities among the contested sequences.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volumen
$225Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds for the September–December 2026 FOMC cycle remain tightly clustered around 25.5% for the three leading paths—Hike–Pause–Hike, Hike–Pause–Pause, and Pause–Hike–Pause—signaling divided trader views on the pace of policy easing. Recent July and August inflation prints showed persistent core CPI above 2.5% while labor-market data reflected a gradual cooling in payrolls and a slight uptick in unemployment, leaving the Fed’s dual-mandate balance uncertain. Market pricing continues to embed expectations for at most one 25-basis-point hike this fall, tempered by Treasury yield volatility and forward guidance that has stressed data dependence. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release, the next employment report, and the September 16–17 FOMC statement, any of which could shift the relative probabilities among the contested sequences.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$225Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds for the September–December 2026 FOMC cycle remain tightly clustered around 25.5% for the three leading paths—Hike–Pause–Hike, Hike–Pause–Pause, and Pause–Hike–Pause—signaling divided trader views on the pace of policy easing. Recent July and August inflation prints showed persistent core CPI above 2.5% while labor-market data reflected a gradual cooling in payrolls and a slight uptick in unemployment, leaving the Fed’s dual-mandate balance uncertain. Market pricing continues to embed expectations for at most one 25-basis-point hike this fall, tempered by Treasury yield volatility and forward guidance that has stressed data dependence. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release, the next employment report, and the September 16–17 FOMC statement, any of which could shift the relative probabilities among the contested sequences.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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