The Department of Justice closed its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on April 24, 2026, transferring scrutiny of headquarters renovation costs and related congressional testimony to the Fed’s inspector general for a non-criminal review. A federal judge had already quashed associated grand jury subpoenas earlier in the year, finding no evidence of wrongdoing beyond policy disputes. With no active federal probes underway and only weeks remaining until June 30, traders assign a 98.8 percent probability against formal charges or indictment. Structural barriers, including prosecutorial discretion and judicial precedent, reinforce this consensus. While a sudden reopening of the DOJ inquiry or emergence of new evidence could theoretically alter the timeline, such developments remain remote given the current procedural status.