Jerome Powell faces no credible path to incarceration before 2027, as reflected in the 98% market-implied probability for "No." The Department of Justice closed its 2026 criminal inquiry—opened in January over Powell's congressional testimony on the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation—by late April, with no charges filed and a federal judge previously quashing related subpoenas for lack of evidence. Fed Chair independence, longstanding legal protections for monetary policy officials, and the absence of ongoing investigations or indictments underpin trader consensus, reinforced by capital-at-risk positioning in prediction markets. Tail risks remain minimal and would require extraordinary political escalation, such as novel prosecutorial actions post-resolution, that lack precedent or current momentum.