The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.93% as of November 1, 2026, after retreating from October highs above 5.3% amid a late-month flight to safety triggered by disappointing tech earnings. Persistent inflation—September CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year—combined with robust Q3 GDP growth of 3.4% and strong labor-market readings has kept the Federal Reserve on hold at the 3.75–4.00% target range following its October meeting, where two members dissented in favor of a hike. Markets now price a December increase as the next likely policy step. Elevated fiscal deficits and heavy long-end Treasury supply add upward pressure on yields, while AI-driven growth expectations and geopolitical risks sustain inflation concerns. Key near-term catalysts include the November 10 CPI release, November 25 PCE data, and the December 8–9 FOMC meeting with updated projections.