Recent developments in the UK economy, including a stronger-than-expected 0.6% QoQ GDP expansion in Q1 2026, have been offset by escalating Middle East conflict driving energy price shocks and upward pressure on inflation. This environment has prompted multiple forecasters to downgrade 2026 full-year growth projections to the 0.8–1.1% range, reflecting risks to household spending and business investment amid higher input costs. April monthly GDP data showing a 0.1% contraction and softer PMI readings further highlight potential softening in Q2 momentum. With market-implied odds tightly clustered across bins from negative growth through 0.1%, traders appear to weigh these countervailing forces—persistent geopolitical uncertainty versus underlying resilience—creating a highly contested outcome ahead of official Q2 releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert0,0–0,1 % 49%
Negative 47%
1.0%+ 46%
0,4–0,5 % 43%
NEU
NEU
12. Aug. 2026
Negative
47%
0,0–0,1 %
49%
0,2–0,3 %
42%
0,4–0,5 %
43%
0,6–0,7 %
42%
0,8–0,9 %
42%
1.0%+
46%
0,0–0,1 % 49%
Negative 47%
1.0%+ 46%
0,4–0,5 % 43%
NEU
NEU
12. Aug. 2026
Negative
$0 Vol.
47%
0,0–0,1 %
$0 Vol.
49%
0,2–0,3 %
$0 Vol.
42%
0,4–0,5 %
$0 Vol.
43%
0,6–0,7 %
$0 Vol.
42%
0,8–0,9 %
$8 Vol.
42%
1.0%+
$40 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent developments in the UK economy, including a stronger-than-expected 0.6% QoQ GDP expansion in Q1 2026, have been offset by escalating Middle East conflict driving energy price shocks and upward pressure on inflation. This environment has prompted multiple forecasters to downgrade 2026 full-year growth projections to the 0.8–1.1% range, reflecting risks to household spending and business investment amid higher input costs. April monthly GDP data showing a 0.1% contraction and softer PMI readings further highlight potential softening in Q2 momentum. With market-implied odds tightly clustered across bins from negative growth through 0.1%, traders appear to weigh these countervailing forces—persistent geopolitical uncertainty versus underlying resilience—creating a highly contested outcome ahead of official Q2 releases.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Markt eröffnet: May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volumen
$48Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent developments in the UK economy, including a stronger-than-expected 0.6% QoQ GDP expansion in Q1 2026, have been offset by escalating Middle East conflict driving energy price shocks and upward pressure on inflation. This environment has prompted multiple forecasters to downgrade 2026 full-year growth projections to the 0.8–1.1% range, reflecting risks to household spending and business investment amid higher input costs. April monthly GDP data showing a 0.1% contraction and softer PMI readings further highlight potential softening in Q2 momentum. With market-implied odds tightly clustered across bins from negative growth through 0.1%, traders appear to weigh these countervailing forces—persistent geopolitical uncertainty versus underlying resilience—creating a highly contested outcome ahead of official Q2 releases.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$48Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments in the UK economy, including a stronger-than-expected 0.6% QoQ GDP expansion in Q1 2026, have been offset by escalating Middle East conflict driving energy price shocks and upward pressure on inflation. This environment has prompted multiple forecasters to downgrade 2026 full-year growth projections to the 0.8–1.1% range, reflecting risks to household spending and business investment amid higher input costs. April monthly GDP data showing a 0.1% contraction and softer PMI readings further highlight potential softening in Q2 momentum. With market-implied odds tightly clustered across bins from negative growth through 0.1%, traders appear to weigh these countervailing forces—persistent geopolitical uncertainty versus underlying resilience—creating a highly contested outcome ahead of official Q2 releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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