Recent Central Bank Focus survey data lifted the median 2026 IPCA projection to 4.99% from 4.92% the prior week, while the BCB’s own Copom reference scenario holds at 5.2%. These revisions followed the hotter-than-expected September IPCA-15 print of +0.70%, pushing the 12-month rate to 4.47% and reflecting rebounds in energy and food prices. The updates align with Polymarket pricing that concentrates nearly 78% probability in the 5.00–5.99% range, well above the 4.5% target ceiling. Traders are also embedding a Selic endpoint of 13.50% for 2026 amid ongoing easing, with limited scope for further downside revisions unless incoming monthly prints and fiscal developments materially cool price pressures.