Recent disinflation in Mexico, with headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.37% in June and 3.94% in May, underpins trader positioning favoring the 3.50–3.99% bucket for the 2026 annual rate. Subdued non-core components, particularly energy prices, alongside Banxico’s 3% ±1% target range and its Q4 2026 forecast near 3.5%, have reinforced expectations of further moderation. Core inflation remains elevated near 4%, however, limiting downside risks and sustaining the secondary 4.00–4.49% outcome at 28.5% implied probability. Stable monetary policy at the 6.50% policy rate and consensus analyst projections clustered around 3.5–4.0% continue to shape the aggregated trader consensus reflected in these odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert3,50 % bis 3,99 % 48.6%
4,00 % bis 4,49 % 29%
4,50 % bis 4,99 % 8%
3,00 % bis 3,49 % 7.2%
$63,934 Vol.
$63,934 Vol.
8. Jan. 2027
<2,50 %
1%
2,50 % bis 2,99 %
5%
3,00 % bis 3,49 %
7%
3,50 % bis 3,99 %
49%
4,00 % bis 4,49 %
29%
4,50 % bis 4,99 %
8%
5,00 % bis 5,49 %
5%
5,50 %+
2%
3,50 % bis 3,99 % 48.6%
4,00 % bis 4,49 % 29%
4,50 % bis 4,99 % 8%
3,00 % bis 3,49 % 7.2%
$63,934 Vol.
$63,934 Vol.
8. Jan. 2027
<2,50 %
$1,061 Vol.
1%
2,50 % bis 2,99 %
$4,895 Vol.
5%
3,00 % bis 3,49 %
$28,329 Vol.
7%
3,50 % bis 3,99 %
$3,820 Vol.
49%
4,00 % bis 4,49 %
$12,313 Vol.
29%
4,50 % bis 4,99 %
$4,752 Vol.
8%
5,00 % bis 5,49 %
$2,452 Vol.
5%
5,50 %+
$6,313 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent disinflation in Mexico, with headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.37% in June and 3.94% in May, underpins trader positioning favoring the 3.50–3.99% bucket for the 2026 annual rate. Subdued non-core components, particularly energy prices, alongside Banxico’s 3% ±1% target range and its Q4 2026 forecast near 3.5%, have reinforced expectations of further moderation. Core inflation remains elevated near 4%, however, limiting downside risks and sustaining the secondary 4.00–4.49% outcome at 28.5% implied probability. Stable monetary policy at the 6.50% policy rate and consensus analyst projections clustered around 3.5–4.0% continue to shape the aggregated trader consensus reflected in these odds.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Markt eröffnet: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$63,934Enddatum
8. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent disinflation in Mexico, with headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.37% in June and 3.94% in May, underpins trader positioning favoring the 3.50–3.99% bucket for the 2026 annual rate. Subdued non-core components, particularly energy prices, alongside Banxico’s 3% ±1% target range and its Q4 2026 forecast near 3.5%, have reinforced expectations of further moderation. Core inflation remains elevated near 4%, however, limiting downside risks and sustaining the secondary 4.00–4.49% outcome at 28.5% implied probability. Stable monetary policy at the 6.50% policy rate and consensus analyst projections clustered around 3.5–4.0% continue to shape the aggregated trader consensus reflected in these odds.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volumen
$63,934Enddatum
8. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent disinflation in Mexico, with headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.37% in June and 3.94% in May, underpins trader positioning favoring the 3.50–3.99% bucket for the 2026 annual rate. Subdued non-core components, particularly energy prices, alongside Banxico’s 3% ±1% target range and its Q4 2026 forecast near 3.5%, have reinforced expectations of further moderation. Core inflation remains elevated near 4%, however, limiting downside risks and sustaining the secondary 4.00–4.49% outcome at 28.5% implied probability. Stable monetary policy at the 6.50% policy rate and consensus analyst projections clustered around 3.5–4.0% continue to shape the aggregated trader consensus reflected in these odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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