Mexico's April 2026 CPI eased to 4.45% year-over-year from 4.59% in March, with core inflation falling to 4.26%, reflecting slower gains in food, housing, and services amid stable monthly price pressures. This latest reading, which came in below consensus, supports trader positioning around the 4.00–4.99% range for the full-year average, where the two leading outcomes hold nearly equal implied probabilities. Upward revisions to year-end 2026 forecasts by economists to 4.37% highlight persistent risks from energy costs and above-target inflation relative to Banco de México's 3% goal. The closely matched odds underscore uncertainty over the pace of further moderation through year-end, with upcoming monthly releases and monetary policy signals serving as key swing factors in the current 43.5% versus 41.0% contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4,50 % bis 4,99 % 37%
3,50 % bis 3,99 % 16.2%
5,00 % bis 5,49 % 15.7%
5,50 %+ 9%
$41,235 Vol.
$41,235 Vol.
<2,50 %
5%
2,50 % bis 2,99 %
<1%
3,00 % bis 3,49 %
7%
3,50 % bis 3,99 %
9%
4,00 % bis 4,49 %
45%
4,50 % bis 4,99 %
37%
5,00 % bis 5,49 %
16%
5,50 %+
9%
4,50 % bis 4,99 % 37%
3,50 % bis 3,99 % 16.2%
5,00 % bis 5,49 % 15.7%
5,50 %+ 9%
$41,235 Vol.
$41,235 Vol.
<2,50 %
5%
2,50 % bis 2,99 %
<1%
3,00 % bis 3,49 %
7%
3,50 % bis 3,99 %
9%
4,00 % bis 4,49 %
45%
4,50 % bis 4,99 %
37%
5,00 % bis 5,49 %
16%
5,50 %+
9%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Markt eröffnet: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mexico's April 2026 CPI eased to 4.45% year-over-year from 4.59% in March, with core inflation falling to 4.26%, reflecting slower gains in food, housing, and services amid stable monthly price pressures. This latest reading, which came in below consensus, supports trader positioning around the 4.00–4.99% range for the full-year average, where the two leading outcomes hold nearly equal implied probabilities. Upward revisions to year-end 2026 forecasts by economists to 4.37% highlight persistent risks from energy costs and above-target inflation relative to Banco de México's 3% goal. The closely matched odds underscore uncertainty over the pace of further moderation through year-end, with upcoming monthly releases and monetary policy signals serving as key swing factors in the current 43.5% versus 41.0% contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen