Recent Australian inflation data, with the July CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and the trimmed mean steady at 3.6%, alongside upside risks from Middle East tensions, the AI-driven investment boom, and energy prices, have reinforced the RBA’s hawkish posture after three 2026 rate hikes totaling 75 basis points to a cash rate of 4.35%. Governor Michele Bullock’s September 18 parliamentary testimony highlighted that these pressures appear to be materializing, prompting markets to price a high likelihood of a September increase while tempering expectations for immediate follow-through in November. Labor market resilience and capacity constraints have further supported the trader consensus reflected in the 72.5% implied probability of no change at the November meeting, versus 25.1% for a 25 basis point rise. Key near-term catalysts include the September 29 decision and subsequent data releases that will shape the policy path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNo change 73%
25 bps increase 25.1%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$48,758 Vol.
$48,758 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
73%
25 bps increase
25%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 73%
25 bps increase 25.1%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$48,758 Vol.
$48,758 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
50+ bps decrease
$3,210 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$3,656 Vol.
1%
No change
$27,363 Vol.
73%
25 bps increase
$11,748 Vol.
25%
50+ bps increase
$2,781 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent Australian inflation data, with the July CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and the trimmed mean steady at 3.6%, alongside upside risks from Middle East tensions, the AI-driven investment boom, and energy prices, have reinforced the RBA’s hawkish posture after three 2026 rate hikes totaling 75 basis points to a cash rate of 4.35%. Governor Michele Bullock’s September 18 parliamentary testimony highlighted that these pressures appear to be materializing, prompting markets to price a high likelihood of a September increase while tempering expectations for immediate follow-through in November. Labor market resilience and capacity constraints have further supported the trader consensus reflected in the 72.5% implied probability of no change at the November meeting, versus 25.1% for a 25 basis point rise. Key near-term catalysts include the September 29 decision and subsequent data releases that will shape the policy path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ET
Volumen
$48,758Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent Australian inflation data, with the July CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and the trimmed mean steady at 3.6%, alongside upside risks from Middle East tensions, the AI-driven investment boom, and energy prices, have reinforced the RBA’s hawkish posture after three 2026 rate hikes totaling 75 basis points to a cash rate of 4.35%. Governor Michele Bullock’s September 18 parliamentary testimony highlighted that these pressures appear to be materializing, prompting markets to price a high likelihood of a September increase while tempering expectations for immediate follow-through in November. Labor market resilience and capacity constraints have further supported the trader consensus reflected in the 72.5% implied probability of no change at the November meeting, versus 25.1% for a 25 basis point rise. Key near-term catalysts include the September 29 decision and subsequent data releases that will shape the policy path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$48,758Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent Australian inflation data, with the July CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and the trimmed mean steady at 3.6%, alongside upside risks from Middle East tensions, the AI-driven investment boom, and energy prices, have reinforced the RBA’s hawkish posture after three 2026 rate hikes totaling 75 basis points to a cash rate of 4.35%. Governor Michele Bullock’s September 18 parliamentary testimony highlighted that these pressures appear to be materializing, prompting markets to price a high likelihood of a September increase while tempering expectations for immediate follow-through in November. Labor market resilience and capacity constraints have further supported the trader consensus reflected in the 72.5% implied probability of no change at the November meeting, versus 25.1% for a 25 basis point rise. Key near-term catalysts include the September 29 decision and subsequent data releases that will shape the policy path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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