Recent July ISM Services PMI readings at 54.1, following June’s 54.0, have anchored trader expectations for the August figure near the 54.0–54.9 range, reflecting steady services-sector expansion amid resilient business activity and new orders. Elevated energy and petroleum costs, alongside lingering tariff effects, continue to support the Prices Index while employment subindexes remain in contraction territory, tempering upside. Broader strength in July manufacturing PMI at 55.6 and S&P Global services data above 53 reinforce the services economy’s momentum ahead of the September 3 release. Market-implied odds favor outcomes clustered around recent prints, with lower probabilities assigned to sharper moves that would require significant shifts in labor conditions or input-cost trajectories.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert54.0–54.9 43%
53.0–53.9 22%
52.0–52.9 22%
55.0–55.9 11%
<50.0
1%
50.0–50.9
<1%
51.0–51.9
<1%
52.0–52.9
22%
53.0–53.9
17%
54.0–54.9
43%
55.0–55.9
11%
56.0–56.9
<1%
57.0–57.9
6%
58.0+
15%
54.0–54.9 43%
53.0–53.9 22%
52.0–52.9 22%
55.0–55.9 11%
<50.0
1%
50.0–50.9
<1%
51.0–51.9
<1%
52.0–52.9
22%
53.0–53.9
17%
54.0–54.9
43%
55.0–55.9
11%
56.0–56.9
<1%
57.0–57.9
6%
58.0+
15%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Recent July ISM Services PMI readings at 54.1, following June’s 54.0, have anchored trader expectations for the August figure near the 54.0–54.9 range, reflecting steady services-sector expansion amid resilient business activity and new orders. Elevated energy and petroleum costs, alongside lingering tariff effects, continue to support the Prices Index while employment subindexes remain in contraction territory, tempering upside. Broader strength in July manufacturing PMI at 55.6 and S&P Global services data above 53 reinforce the services economy’s momentum ahead of the September 3 release. Market-implied odds favor outcomes clustered around recent prints, with lower probabilities assigned to sharper moves that would require significant shifts in labor conditions or input-cost trajectories.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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