The closely matched probabilities across positive and near-zero August nonfarm payrolls bins reflect heightened uncertainty following the unexpected 23,000 job decline in July, which missed consensus forecasts of 80,000–95,000 gains and followed downward revisions to prior months. Traders are weighing signs of labor market softening—such as contractions in government education and retail—against resilient private-sector components like healthcare and construction, plus potential offsets from immigration policy tightening that could constrain labor supply. The August 28 preliminary benchmark revision, projected at –911,000, adds further volatility ahead of the September 4 release, while broader Fed policy considerations around the 3.5–3.75% funds rate range keep focus on whether data will shift rate expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert-50k – 0 46%
100k – 150k 46%
150k+ 46%
50.000 – 100.000 45%
<-50k
11%
-50k – 0
46%
0 – 50 Tsd.
44%
50.000 – 100.000
45%
100k – 150k
46%
150k+
46%
-50k – 0 46%
100k – 150k 46%
150k+ 46%
50.000 – 100.000 45%
<-50k
11%
-50k – 0
46%
0 – 50 Tsd.
44%
50.000 – 100.000
45%
100k – 150k
46%
150k+
46%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Markt eröffnet: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities across positive and near-zero August nonfarm payrolls bins reflect heightened uncertainty following the unexpected 23,000 job decline in July, which missed consensus forecasts of 80,000–95,000 gains and followed downward revisions to prior months. Traders are weighing signs of labor market softening—such as contractions in government education and retail—against resilient private-sector components like healthcare and construction, plus potential offsets from immigration policy tightening that could constrain labor supply. The August 28 preliminary benchmark revision, projected at –911,000, adds further volatility ahead of the September 4 release, while broader Fed policy considerations around the 3.5–3.75% funds rate range keep focus on whether data will shift rate expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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