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Economy·Jobs

August Unemployment Rate

icon for August Unemployment Rate
Economy·Jobs

August Unemployment Rate

Sep. 4

Sep. 4

4.1% 33%

4.2% 28%

4.3% 22%

4.0% 19%

Polymarket
NEU

4.1% 33%

4.2% 28%

4.3% 22%

4.0% 19%

Polymarket
NEU

≤3.8%

$105 Vol.

2%

3.9%

$107 Vol.

1%

4.0%

$449 Vol.

19%

4.1%

$2,244 Vol.

33%

4.2%

$925 Vol.

28%

4.3%

$534 Vol.

22%

4.4%

$128 Vol.

6%

4.5%

$127 Vol.

2%

≥4.6%

$107 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July employment data, showing a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline against consensus expectations for an 80,000 gain along with sizable downward revisions to prior months, represents the dominant factor shaping trader positioning on the August unemployment rate. This softening in payroll growth, coupled with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1 percent amid further labor-force contraction and a participation rate at 61.4 percent, has reinforced market-implied odds clustering around 4.1–4.2 percent. With those outcomes holding a combined 62.5 percent probability, participants appear to price in continued labor-market cooling while recognizing that month-to-month volatility in household-survey components and potential August hiring rebounds could still shift the realized figure. The September 4 release will resolve the contract amid ongoing focus on Federal Reserve policy signals.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.

The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$4,726
Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July employment data, showing a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline against consensus expectations for an 80,000 gain along with sizable downward revisions to prior months, represents the dominant factor shaping trader positioning on the August unemployment rate. This softening in payroll growth, coupled with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1 percent amid further labor-force contraction and a participation rate at 61.4 percent, has reinforced market-implied odds clustering around 4.1–4.2 percent. With those outcomes holding a combined 62.5 percent probability, participants appear to price in continued labor-market cooling while recognizing that month-to-month volatility in household-survey components and potential August hiring rebounds could still shift the realized figure. The September 4 release will resolve the contract amid ongoing focus on Federal Reserve policy signals.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.

The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$4,726
Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Verwandte

icon for Wird die US-Arbeitslosenquote im Jahr 2026 mindestens 5,0 % erreichen?

Wird die US-Arbeitslosenquote im Jahr 2026 mindestens 5,0 % erreichen?

10%
Ja
icon for Will the US add at least 150k jobs in August?

Will the US add at least 150k jobs in August?

35%
icon for Werden die offenen Stellen laut JOLTS im Juli zwischen 7,3 Mio. und 7,4 Mio. liegen?

Werden die offenen Stellen laut JOLTS im Juli zwischen 7,3 Mio. und 7,4 Mio. liegen?

35%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„August Unemployment Rate" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 9 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „4.1%" mit 33%, gefolgt von „4.2%" mit 28%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 33¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 33% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„August Unemployment Rate" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 7, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „August Unemployment Rate" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 9 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „August Unemployment Rate" ist „4.1%" mit 33%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 33% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „4.2%" mit 28%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „August Unemployment Rate" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.