Germany’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year, price-adjusted) trades with 1.0-1.2% as the clear favorite at 52.5% implied probability. Stronger-than-expected H1 momentum—0.4% QoQ in Q1 and a revised 0.3% in Q2, fueled by exports and expansionary fiscal policy—has anchored trader expectations for continued moderate expansion. Elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions have lifted HICP inflation to 2.7-2.9%, curbing real household spending and capping upside, while low Rhine water levels have weighed on industrial output and transport. Analysts at the Kiel Institute and Bundesbank project only modest quarterly gains around 0.1% for Q3 amid these headwinds, supporting the market’s clustering around the 1.0-1.2% band. The October 30 first-release data will resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1.0-1.2% 53%
0.7-0.9% 19%
1.3%+ 19%
≤0.0% 5.5%
$34,251 Vol.
$34,251 Vol.
30. Okt. 2026
≤0.0%
6%
0.1-0.3%
4%
0.4-0.6%
5%
0.7-0.9%
19%
1.0-1.2%
53%
1.3%+
19%
1.0-1.2% 53%
0.7-0.9% 19%
1.3%+ 19%
≤0.0% 5.5%
$34,251 Vol.
$34,251 Vol.
30. Okt. 2026
≤0.0%
$1,361 Vol.
6%
0.1-0.3%
$1,644 Vol.
4%
0.4-0.6%
$700 Vol.
5%
0.7-0.9%
$5,794 Vol.
19%
1.0-1.2%
$20,450 Vol.
53%
1.3%+
$4,302 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year, price-adjusted) trades with 1.0-1.2% as the clear favorite at 52.5% implied probability. Stronger-than-expected H1 momentum—0.4% QoQ in Q1 and a revised 0.3% in Q2, fueled by exports and expansionary fiscal policy—has anchored trader expectations for continued moderate expansion. Elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions have lifted HICP inflation to 2.7-2.9%, curbing real household spending and capping upside, while low Rhine water levels have weighed on industrial output and transport. Analysts at the Kiel Institute and Bundesbank project only modest quarterly gains around 0.1% for Q3 amid these headwinds, supporting the market’s clustering around the 1.0-1.2% band. The October 30 first-release data will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Volumen
$34,251Enddatum
30. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year, price-adjusted) trades with 1.0-1.2% as the clear favorite at 52.5% implied probability. Stronger-than-expected H1 momentum—0.4% QoQ in Q1 and a revised 0.3% in Q2, fueled by exports and expansionary fiscal policy—has anchored trader expectations for continued moderate expansion. Elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions have lifted HICP inflation to 2.7-2.9%, curbing real household spending and capping upside, while low Rhine water levels have weighed on industrial output and transport. Analysts at the Kiel Institute and Bundesbank project only modest quarterly gains around 0.1% for Q3 amid these headwinds, supporting the market’s clustering around the 1.0-1.2% band. The October 30 first-release data will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$34,251Enddatum
30. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Germany’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year, price-adjusted) trades with 1.0-1.2% as the clear favorite at 52.5% implied probability. Stronger-than-expected H1 momentum—0.4% QoQ in Q1 and a revised 0.3% in Q2, fueled by exports and expansionary fiscal policy—has anchored trader expectations for continued moderate expansion. Elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions have lifted HICP inflation to 2.7-2.9%, curbing real household spending and capping upside, while low Rhine water levels have weighed on industrial output and transport. Analysts at the Kiel Institute and Bundesbank project only modest quarterly gains around 0.1% for Q3 amid these headwinds, supporting the market’s clustering around the 1.0-1.2% band. The October 30 first-release data will resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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