China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5% and first-half GDP expansion of 4.7% have anchored trader expectations for annual growth in the 4.0–5.0% range. Q2 data showed a slowdown to 4.3% amid softening domestic demand and a still-fragile property sector, offset by resilient manufacturing, exports, and high-tech output. Major forecasters including the OECD and BBVA Research project full-year expansion near 4.5%, consistent with cautious fiscal support and limited spillovers from external events. These trends have concentrated market pricing on the official target band while assigning only modest probability to outcomes above 5% or below 4%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4,0–5,0 % 89%
5,0–6,0 % 10.7%
8,0–9,0 % 1.4%
3,0–4,0 % 1.1%
$875,308 Vol.
$875,308 Vol.
31. Jan. 2026
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
1%
4,0–5,0 %
89%
5,0–6,0 %
11%
6,0-7,0 %
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
1%
9,0 %+
1%
4,0–5,0 % 89%
5,0–6,0 % 10.7%
8,0–9,0 % 1.4%
3,0–4,0 % 1.1%
$875,308 Vol.
$875,308 Vol.
31. Jan. 2026
<1,0 %
$64,833 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
$74,124 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
$44,776 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
$80,148 Vol.
1%
4,0–5,0 %
$219,722 Vol.
89%
5,0–6,0 %
$78,494 Vol.
11%
6,0-7,0 %
$82,124 Vol.
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
$62,549 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
$53,031 Vol.
1%
9,0 %+
$115,508 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5% and first-half GDP expansion of 4.7% have anchored trader expectations for annual growth in the 4.0–5.0% range. Q2 data showed a slowdown to 4.3% amid softening domestic demand and a still-fragile property sector, offset by resilient manufacturing, exports, and high-tech output. Major forecasters including the OECD and BBVA Research project full-year expansion near 4.5%, consistent with cautious fiscal support and limited spillovers from external events. These trends have concentrated market pricing on the official target band while assigning only modest probability to outcomes above 5% or below 4%.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$875,308Enddatum
31. Jan. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5% and first-half GDP expansion of 4.7% have anchored trader expectations for annual growth in the 4.0–5.0% range. Q2 data showed a slowdown to 4.3% amid softening domestic demand and a still-fragile property sector, offset by resilient manufacturing, exports, and high-tech output. Major forecasters including the OECD and BBVA Research project full-year expansion near 4.5%, consistent with cautious fiscal support and limited spillovers from external events. These trends have concentrated market pricing on the official target band while assigning only modest probability to outcomes above 5% or below 4%.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$875,308Enddatum
31. Jan. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5% and first-half GDP expansion of 4.7% have anchored trader expectations for annual growth in the 4.0–5.0% range. Q2 data showed a slowdown to 4.3% amid softening domestic demand and a still-fragile property sector, offset by resilient manufacturing, exports, and high-tech output. Major forecasters including the OECD and BBVA Research project full-year expansion near 4.5%, consistent with cautious fiscal support and limited spillovers from external events. These trends have concentrated market pricing on the official target band while assigning only modest probability to outcomes above 5% or below 4%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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