Polymarket traders' closely contested implied probabilities—39% for exactly 3.6% global GDP growth and 33% for 3.7% or higher—reflect optimism that exceeds the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook baseline of 3.1%, trimmed amid assumed limited Middle East conflict impacts on oil prices and supply chains. Resilient Q1 2026 data, including U.S. real GDP at 2.0% annualized, robust emerging market outlooks (India 6.5%, China 4.4%), and AI productivity tailwinds underpin the upside bias, while ≤2.9% at 20% accounts for escalation risks. Key differentiators include conflict de-escalation speed versus persistent inflation (core at 4.5%) and trade frictions; watch Q2 aggregates and June FOMC/ECB meetings for shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert2026 Welt-BIP-Wachstum
2026 Welt-BIP-Wachstum
≤2,9% 21%
3,4 % 7.8%
3,2 % 5.4%
3,5 % 5.4%
$16,920 Vol.
$16,920 Vol.
15. Jan. 2027
≤2,9%
21%
3,0 %
4%
3,1 %
4%
3,2 %
5%
3,3 %
1%
3,4 %
8%
3,5 %
5%
3,6 %
41%
3,7 %+
33%
≤2,9% 21%
3,4 % 7.8%
3,2 % 5.4%
3,5 % 5.4%
$16,920 Vol.
$16,920 Vol.
15. Jan. 2027
≤2,9%
$3,756 Vol.
21%
3,0 %
$405 Vol.
4%
3,1 %
$376 Vol.
4%
3,2 %
$1,583 Vol.
5%
3,3 %
$3,034 Vol.
1%
3,4 %
$3,527 Vol.
8%
3,5 %
$3,006 Vol.
5%
3,6 %
$452 Vol.
41%
3,7 %+
$782 Vol.
33%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders' closely contested implied probabilities—39% for exactly 3.6% global GDP growth and 33% for 3.7% or higher—reflect optimism that exceeds the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook baseline of 3.1%, trimmed amid assumed limited Middle East conflict impacts on oil prices and supply chains. Resilient Q1 2026 data, including U.S. real GDP at 2.0% annualized, robust emerging market outlooks (India 6.5%, China 4.4%), and AI productivity tailwinds underpin the upside bias, while ≤2.9% at 20% accounts for escalation risks. Key differentiators include conflict de-escalation speed versus persistent inflation (core at 4.5%) and trade frictions; watch Q2 aggregates and June FOMC/ECB meetings for shifts.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volumen
$16,920Enddatum
15. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders' closely contested implied probabilities—39% for exactly 3.6% global GDP growth and 33% for 3.7% or higher—reflect optimism that exceeds the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook baseline of 3.1%, trimmed amid assumed limited Middle East conflict impacts on oil prices and supply chains. Resilient Q1 2026 data, including U.S. real GDP at 2.0% annualized, robust emerging market outlooks (India 6.5%, China 4.4%), and AI productivity tailwinds underpin the upside bias, while ≤2.9% at 20% accounts for escalation risks. Key differentiators include conflict de-escalation speed versus persistent inflation (core at 4.5%) and trade frictions; watch Q2 aggregates and June FOMC/ECB meetings for shifts.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$16,920Enddatum
15. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely contested implied probabilities—39% for exactly 3.6% global GDP growth and 33% for 3.7% or higher—reflect optimism that exceeds the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook baseline of 3.1%, trimmed amid assumed limited Middle East conflict impacts on oil prices and supply chains. Resilient Q1 2026 data, including U.S. real GDP at 2.0% annualized, robust emerging market outlooks (India 6.5%, China 4.4%), and AI productivity tailwinds underpin the upside bias, while ≤2.9% at 20% accounts for escalation risks. Key differentiators include conflict de-escalation speed versus persistent inflation (core at 4.5%) and trade frictions; watch Q2 aggregates and June FOMC/ECB meetings for shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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