Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, has left trader sentiment evenly split across outcome bins for Q3, reflecting substantial uncertainty around the quarter's trajectory. Cooling labor market data, with unemployment at 4.2% in June amid slower payroll gains, weighs on consumer spending while AI-driven investment and fiscal support from prior policy measures provide offsetting momentum. Tariff effects and energy price volatility continue to influence inflation expectations, complicating the growth outlook as forecasters project full-year expansion near 2.0-2.2%. With Q3 data releases still pending and the period just underway, market-implied odds highlight competing forces between resilient business fixed investment and softening household demand, keeping probabilities closely contested until clearer signals emerge from upcoming employment and spending reports.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1.5–2.0% 23%
1.0–1.5% 22%
2.0–2.5% 19%
0.5–1.0% 16%
NEU
NEU
29. Okt. 2026
<0.5%
12%
0.5–1.0%
16%
1.0–1.5%
22%
1.5–2.0%
23%
2.0–2.5%
19%
2.5–3.0%
12%
≥3.0%
9%
1.5–2.0% 23%
1.0–1.5% 22%
2.0–2.5% 19%
0.5–1.0% 16%
NEU
NEU
29. Okt. 2026
<0.5%
$0 Vol.
12%
0.5–1.0%
$0 Vol.
16%
1.0–1.5%
$0 Vol.
22%
1.5–2.0%
$0 Vol.
23%
2.0–2.5%
$0 Vol.
19%
2.5–3.0%
$0 Vol.
12%
≥3.0%
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, has left trader sentiment evenly split across outcome bins for Q3, reflecting substantial uncertainty around the quarter's trajectory. Cooling labor market data, with unemployment at 4.2% in June amid slower payroll gains, weighs on consumer spending while AI-driven investment and fiscal support from prior policy measures provide offsetting momentum. Tariff effects and energy price volatility continue to influence inflation expectations, complicating the growth outlook as forecasters project full-year expansion near 2.0-2.2%. With Q3 data releases still pending and the period just underway, market-implied odds highlight competing forces between resilient business fixed investment and softening household demand, keeping probabilities closely contested until clearer signals emerge from upcoming employment and spending reports.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
29. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, has left trader sentiment evenly split across outcome bins for Q3, reflecting substantial uncertainty around the quarter's trajectory. Cooling labor market data, with unemployment at 4.2% in June amid slower payroll gains, weighs on consumer spending while AI-driven investment and fiscal support from prior policy measures provide offsetting momentum. Tariff effects and energy price volatility continue to influence inflation expectations, complicating the growth outlook as forecasters project full-year expansion near 2.0-2.2%. With Q3 data releases still pending and the period just underway, market-implied odds highlight competing forces between resilient business fixed investment and softening household demand, keeping probabilities closely contested until clearer signals emerge from upcoming employment and spending reports.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
29. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, has left trader sentiment evenly split across outcome bins for Q3, reflecting substantial uncertainty around the quarter's trajectory. Cooling labor market data, with unemployment at 4.2% in June amid slower payroll gains, weighs on consumer spending while AI-driven investment and fiscal support from prior policy measures provide offsetting momentum. Tariff effects and energy price volatility continue to influence inflation expectations, complicating the growth outlook as forecasters project full-year expansion near 2.0-2.2%. With Q3 data releases still pending and the period just underway, market-implied odds highlight competing forces between resilient business fixed investment and softening household demand, keeping probabilities closely contested until clearer signals emerge from upcoming employment and spending reports.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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