Recent weakness in euro area economic data has positioned the 1.0-2.0% and 0-1.0% annual GDP growth ranges as the clear leading outcomes on Polymarket, with combined implied probabilities exceeding 80%. First-quarter 2026 GDP expanded just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year, the slowest pace since mid-2025, reflecting an energy supply shock from the Middle East conflict that has lifted commodity prices and eroded business and consumer confidence. Major institutions have responded with downward revisions, including the ECB’s 0.9% baseline projection and the IMF’s 1.1% forecast for the full year, both incorporating higher inflation risks and tighter financial conditions. Traders appear to be pricing in a modest rebound from subdued momentum while assigning limited odds to stronger or negative scenarios absent a rapid de-escalation in geopolitical tensions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1,0-2,0 % 61%
3,0-4,0 % 11.9%
<0 % 7.2%
2,0-3,0 % 5%
NEU
NEU
31. Jan. 2027
<0 %
13%
0–1,0 %
23%
1,0-2,0 %
61%
2,0-3,0 %
10%
3,0-4,0 %
12%
4,0–5,0 %
5%
5,0-6,0 %
3%
6,0–7,0 %
1%
7,0 %+
3%
1,0-2,0 % 61%
3,0-4,0 % 11.9%
<0 % 7.2%
2,0-3,0 % 5%
NEU
NEU
31. Jan. 2027
<0 %
$792 Vol.
13%
0–1,0 %
$636 Vol.
23%
1,0-2,0 %
$1,474 Vol.
61%
2,0-3,0 %
$638 Vol.
10%
3,0-4,0 %
$567 Vol.
12%
4,0–5,0 %
$1,540 Vol.
5%
5,0-6,0 %
$631 Vol.
3%
6,0–7,0 %
$1,323 Vol.
1%
7,0 %+
$1,110 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in euro area economic data has positioned the 1.0-2.0% and 0-1.0% annual GDP growth ranges as the clear leading outcomes on Polymarket, with combined implied probabilities exceeding 80%. First-quarter 2026 GDP expanded just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year, the slowest pace since mid-2025, reflecting an energy supply shock from the Middle East conflict that has lifted commodity prices and eroded business and consumer confidence. Major institutions have responded with downward revisions, including the ECB’s 0.9% baseline projection and the IMF’s 1.1% forecast for the full year, both incorporating higher inflation risks and tighter financial conditions. Traders appear to be pricing in a modest rebound from subdued momentum while assigning limited odds to stronger or negative scenarios absent a rapid de-escalation in geopolitical tensions.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$8,712Enddatum
31. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in euro area economic data has positioned the 1.0-2.0% and 0-1.0% annual GDP growth ranges as the clear leading outcomes on Polymarket, with combined implied probabilities exceeding 80%. First-quarter 2026 GDP expanded just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year, the slowest pace since mid-2025, reflecting an energy supply shock from the Middle East conflict that has lifted commodity prices and eroded business and consumer confidence. Major institutions have responded with downward revisions, including the ECB’s 0.9% baseline projection and the IMF’s 1.1% forecast for the full year, both incorporating higher inflation risks and tighter financial conditions. Traders appear to be pricing in a modest rebound from subdued momentum while assigning limited odds to stronger or negative scenarios absent a rapid de-escalation in geopolitical tensions.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$8,712Enddatum
31. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent weakness in euro area economic data has positioned the 1.0-2.0% and 0-1.0% annual GDP growth ranges as the clear leading outcomes on Polymarket, with combined implied probabilities exceeding 80%. First-quarter 2026 GDP expanded just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year, the slowest pace since mid-2025, reflecting an energy supply shock from the Middle East conflict that has lifted commodity prices and eroded business and consumer confidence. Major institutions have responded with downward revisions, including the ECB’s 0.9% baseline projection and the IMF’s 1.1% forecast for the full year, both incorporating higher inflation risks and tighter financial conditions. Traders appear to be pricing in a modest rebound from subdued momentum while assigning limited odds to stronger or negative scenarios absent a rapid de-escalation in geopolitical tensions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen