Brazil’s Central Bank (BCB) cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 13.75% at its September 16 meeting, marking the fifth consecutive reduction amid cooling inflation and moderating economic activity. August IPCA inflation printed at -0.32% month-over-month and 4.22% year-over-year—below consensus and the upper bound of the 1.5–4.5% target band—while the BCB’s forward-looking inflation projection for the policy horizon held at 3.2%. Traders assign the highest implied probability (52.5%) to no further change in December, reflecting expectations that the committee will pause to assess post-election fiscal policy and external risks such as Middle East conflicts and commodity volatility. A modest 25 basis point easing carries the next-highest weighting at 25.5%, consistent with Focus survey projections that the Selic will likely remain near current levels through year-end before resuming gradual cuts in 2027. Upcoming data releases on September and October inflation, along with the October presidential election outcome, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeine Änderung 53%
25 Basispunkte Senkung 26%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 13.9%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte 8%
NEU
NEU
9. Dez. 2026
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
2%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
14%
Keine Änderung
53%
25 Basispunkte Senkung
26%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
8%
Keine Änderung 53%
25 Basispunkte Senkung 26%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 13.9%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte 8%
NEU
NEU
9. Dez. 2026
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$205 Vol.
2%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$329 Vol.
14%
Keine Änderung
$2,306 Vol.
53%
25 Basispunkte Senkung
$425 Vol.
26%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$131 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Brazil’s Central Bank (BCB) cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 13.75% at its September 16 meeting, marking the fifth consecutive reduction amid cooling inflation and moderating economic activity. August IPCA inflation printed at -0.32% month-over-month and 4.22% year-over-year—below consensus and the upper bound of the 1.5–4.5% target band—while the BCB’s forward-looking inflation projection for the policy horizon held at 3.2%. Traders assign the highest implied probability (52.5%) to no further change in December, reflecting expectations that the committee will pause to assess post-election fiscal policy and external risks such as Middle East conflicts and commodity volatility. A modest 25 basis point easing carries the next-highest weighting at 25.5%, consistent with Focus survey projections that the Selic will likely remain near current levels through year-end before resuming gradual cuts in 2027. Upcoming data releases on September and October inflation, along with the October presidential election outcome, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 18, 2026, 7:57 PM ET
Volumen
$3,396Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 18, 2026, 7:57 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Brazil’s Central Bank (BCB) cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 13.75% at its September 16 meeting, marking the fifth consecutive reduction amid cooling inflation and moderating economic activity. August IPCA inflation printed at -0.32% month-over-month and 4.22% year-over-year—below consensus and the upper bound of the 1.5–4.5% target band—while the BCB’s forward-looking inflation projection for the policy horizon held at 3.2%. Traders assign the highest implied probability (52.5%) to no further change in December, reflecting expectations that the committee will pause to assess post-election fiscal policy and external risks such as Middle East conflicts and commodity volatility. A modest 25 basis point easing carries the next-highest weighting at 25.5%, consistent with Focus survey projections that the Selic will likely remain near current levels through year-end before resuming gradual cuts in 2027. Upcoming data releases on September and October inflation, along with the October presidential election outcome, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,396Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 18, 2026, 7:57 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Brazil’s Central Bank (BCB) cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 13.75% at its September 16 meeting, marking the fifth consecutive reduction amid cooling inflation and moderating economic activity. August IPCA inflation printed at -0.32% month-over-month and 4.22% year-over-year—below consensus and the upper bound of the 1.5–4.5% target band—while the BCB’s forward-looking inflation projection for the policy horizon held at 3.2%. Traders assign the highest implied probability (52.5%) to no further change in December, reflecting expectations that the committee will pause to assess post-election fiscal policy and external risks such as Middle East conflicts and commodity volatility. A modest 25 basis point easing carries the next-highest weighting at 25.5%, consistent with Focus survey projections that the Selic will likely remain near current levels through year-end before resuming gradual cuts in 2027. Upcoming data releases on September and October inflation, along with the October presidential election outcome, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird die Bank von Brasilien das Ziel für den Selic-Satz bei der November-Sitzung um 25 Basispunkte senken?
63%
Ja
Wird die Zentralbank von Kolumbien bei der Sitzung im Oktober keine Änderung des Leitzinses vornehmen?
68%
Ja
Wird die Zentralbank von Kolumbien auf der Sitzung im September keine Änderung des geldpolitischen Zinssatzes vornehmen?
56%
Ja
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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