Robust US economic data through mid-2026 continues to anchor the 92.5% market-implied probability against a recession by year-end, with real GDP expanding above trend, unemployment holding near historic lows, and core inflation moderating toward the Fed’s 2% target. The Federal Reserve’s measured policy stance—keeping the funds rate in a restrictive but stable range—has supported consumer spending and business investment without triggering the sharp tightening that historically precedes downturns. Equity benchmarks remain elevated, Treasury yields reflect contained growth risks, and leading indicators such as ISM services and jobless claims show no broad deterioration. While an unexpected energy shock, sharp fiscal tightening, or rapid labor-market reversal could still raise recession odds, current fundamentals and forward-looking consensus forecasts leave limited scope for contraction before 2027.