Recent August core PCE data printed at 3.0% year-over-year after larger-than-expected downward revisions from BEA methodology changes on non-market services, tempering expectations for September following a string of 3.3% readings. This softness, alongside resilient consumer spending and energy-driven headline pressures, has compressed trader-implied odds tightly between 3.0% and 3.1% as the leading outcomes. Markets are weighting incoming September CPI and PPI prints heavily, given their direct feed into the PCE calculation, while monitoring whether the recent disinflation reflects a durable trend or one-off accounting effects amid the Fed’s elevated 2026 core PCE projections near 3.4%.