Elevated crude oil prices near $100–$104 per barrel, driven by ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant factor keeping U.S. regular gasoline averages at $4.44–$4.48 per gallon as of mid-September 2026. Refinery constraints, including overseas disruptions and domestic maintenance, have widened crack spreads and limited supply relief despite strong U.S. production. Regional variations persist, with the lowest state averages (Texas and Indiana near $3.92–$3.95) still well above $3.75, while California exceeds $6.10. Seasonal demand, high refinery utilization rates near 98%, and limited near-term catalysts such as FOMC decisions or major inventory builds suggest limited downside pressure on pump prices in the coming weeks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNEU
20. Sep. 2026
20. September
4%
30. September
24%
31. Oktober
51%
$808 Vol.
20. September
$488 Vol.
4%
30. September
$80 Vol.
24%
31. Oktober
$240 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.Elevated crude oil prices near $100–$104 per barrel, driven by ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant factor keeping U.S. regular gasoline averages at $4.44–$4.48 per gallon as of mid-September 2026. Refinery constraints, including overseas disruptions and domestic maintenance, have widened crack spreads and limited supply relief despite strong U.S. production. Regional variations persist, with the lowest state averages (Texas and Indiana near $3.92–$3.95) still well above $3.75, while California exceeds $6.10. Seasonal demand, high refinery utilization rates near 98%, and limited near-term catalysts such as FOMC decisions or major inventory builds suggest limited downside pressure on pump prices in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ET
Volumen
$808Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.Elevated crude oil prices near $100–$104 per barrel, driven by ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant factor keeping U.S. regular gasoline averages at $4.44–$4.48 per gallon as of mid-September 2026. Refinery constraints, including overseas disruptions and domestic maintenance, have widened crack spreads and limited supply relief despite strong U.S. production. Regional variations persist, with the lowest state averages (Texas and Indiana near $3.92–$3.95) still well above $3.75, while California exceeds $6.10. Seasonal demand, high refinery utilization rates near 98%, and limited near-term catalysts such as FOMC decisions or major inventory builds suggest limited downside pressure on pump prices in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Volumen
$808Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Elevated crude oil prices near $100–$104 per barrel, driven by ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant factor keeping U.S. regular gasoline averages at $4.44–$4.48 per gallon as of mid-September 2026. Refinery constraints, including overseas disruptions and domestic maintenance, have widened crack spreads and limited supply relief despite strong U.S. production. Regional variations persist, with the lowest state averages (Texas and Indiana near $3.92–$3.95) still well above $3.75, while California exceeds $6.10. Seasonal demand, high refinery utilization rates near 98%, and limited near-term catalysts such as FOMC decisions or major inventory builds suggest limited downside pressure on pump prices in the coming weeks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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