Recent July 2026 CPI data showing a decline to 2.8% year-over-year, below expectations, has anchored trader sentiment around the 2.7–2.9% range for South Korea’s full-year average inflation, reinforced by the Bank of Korea’s 2.7% projection and the Ministry of Economy and Finance’s 2.6% forecast. Core inflation pressures, including the largest rise since late 2023, alongside persistent wage and housing cost increases, support the closely contested 3.0%+ outcome at 28.6% implied probability. Energy price moderation and chip-driven export strength provide offsetting disinflationary effects, while upcoming August CPI and potential further rate adjustments by the BOK represent key swing factors in this narrow probability spread.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert2,7 % bis 2,9 % 32.8%
3,0 %+ 28.6%
2,4 % bis 2,6 % 24.3%
2,1 % bis 2,3 % 13.3%
$31,215 Vol.
$31,215 Vol.
<1,5 %
2%
1,5 % bis 1,7 %
3%
1,8 % bis 2,0 %
1%
2,1 % bis 2,3 %
13%
2,4 % bis 2,6 %
24%
2,7 % bis 2,9 %
33%
3,0 %+
29%
2,7 % bis 2,9 % 32.8%
3,0 %+ 28.6%
2,4 % bis 2,6 % 24.3%
2,1 % bis 2,3 % 13.3%
$31,215 Vol.
$31,215 Vol.
<1,5 %
2%
1,5 % bis 1,7 %
3%
1,8 % bis 2,0 %
1%
2,1 % bis 2,3 %
13%
2,4 % bis 2,6 %
24%
2,7 % bis 2,9 %
33%
3,0 %+
29%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000
Markt eröffnet: Feb 6, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent July 2026 CPI data showing a decline to 2.8% year-over-year, below expectations, has anchored trader sentiment around the 2.7–2.9% range for South Korea’s full-year average inflation, reinforced by the Bank of Korea’s 2.7% projection and the Ministry of Economy and Finance’s 2.6% forecast. Core inflation pressures, including the largest rise since late 2023, alongside persistent wage and housing cost increases, support the closely contested 3.0%+ outcome at 28.6% implied probability. Energy price moderation and chip-driven export strength provide offsetting disinflationary effects, while upcoming August CPI and potential further rate adjustments by the BOK represent key swing factors in this narrow probability spread.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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