Recent housing data from sources including Zillow and Redfin indicate median values in the DC Metro area hovering near 580,000–585,000 as of late April 2026, with modest year-over-year declines or flat performance in core metrics amid elevated inventory and federal employment uncertainty. These conditions support the market-implied odds concentrating on the 559–566k range at 41.5 percent, followed by 566–572k at 22.0 percent, as traders price in continued stabilization rather than sharp rebounds. Limited new listings and slower sales velocity in recent weeks have reinforced expectations of contained movement before the May 31 resolution, while broader forecasts for 1 percent annual softening further anchor probabilities within the 550k–580k band.