Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race for May 2026 CPI year-over-year at around 4.3%, with ≥4.4% (30.5%) edging 4.3% (29.0%) and 4.2% (23.0%) close behind, reflecting uncertainty after April's hotter-than-expected 3.8% print—up from March's 3.3% and the highest since May 2023—driven by a 0.6% monthly surge amid energy cost spikes tied to the Iran conflict. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to 4.18% for May, incorporating base effects and persistent shelter inflation, while core CPI eased slightly to 3.3%. Key swing factors include May's volatile energy and food components; resolution awaits the June 10 BLS release, with FOMC implications looming for rate cut odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert≥4,4 % 31%
4.3% 29%
4.2% 23%
4.1% 10%
≤3,3 %
1%
3.4%
1%
3.5%
1%
3.6%
1%
3.7%
2%
3.8%
2%
3.9%
4%
4.0%
2%
4.1%
10%
4.2%
23%
4.3%
29%
≥4,4 %
31%
≥4,4 % 31%
4.3% 29%
4.2% 23%
4.1% 10%
≤3,3 %
1%
3.4%
1%
3.5%
1%
3.6%
1%
3.7%
2%
3.8%
2%
3.9%
4%
4.0%
2%
4.1%
10%
4.2%
23%
4.3%
29%
≥4,4 %
31%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race for May 2026 CPI year-over-year at around 4.3%, with ≥4.4% (30.5%) edging 4.3% (29.0%) and 4.2% (23.0%) close behind, reflecting uncertainty after April's hotter-than-expected 3.8% print—up from March's 3.3% and the highest since May 2023—driven by a 0.6% monthly surge amid energy cost spikes tied to the Iran conflict. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to 4.18% for May, incorporating base effects and persistent shelter inflation, while core CPI eased slightly to 3.3%. Key swing factors include May's volatile energy and food components; resolution awaits the June 10 BLS release, with FOMC implications looming for rate cut odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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