Recent Canadian CPI data, including the 2.8% June 2026 year-over-year print down from 3.2% in May, has anchored trader expectations for the 2026 annual inflation rate near the middle of the target range. Softer gasoline and shelter components, alongside Bank of Canada core measures (CPI-trim and median) near 1.8–2.0%, reflect easing price pressures amid subpar economic growth and a policy rate held at 2.25%. Forward-looking projections from the BoC and consensus forecasts point to further moderation toward 2% by late 2026 or into 2027, tempered by potential energy volatility and lingering trade risks. The market-implied 39.4% probability on the 2.5–2.9% band captures this path of gradual disinflation, with upcoming July CPI data due August 17 offering the next key input into year-end outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKanada Jährliche Inflation 2026
2,5–2,9 % 39.5%
2,0–2,4 % 16.9%
3,0-3,4 % 16.4%
3,5–3,9 % 13.1%
$38,063 Vol.
$38,063 Vol.
<1,0 %
3%
1,0–1,4 %
5%
1,5–1,9 %
12%
2,0–2,4 %
17%
2,5–2,9 %
40%
3,0-3,4 %
16%
3,5–3,9 %
13%
4,0 %+
2%
2,5–2,9 % 39.5%
2,0–2,4 % 16.9%
3,0-3,4 % 16.4%
3,5–3,9 % 13.1%
$38,063 Vol.
$38,063 Vol.
<1,0 %
3%
1,0–1,4 %
5%
1,5–1,9 %
12%
2,0–2,4 %
17%
2,5–2,9 %
40%
3,0-3,4 %
16%
3,5–3,9 %
13%
4,0 %+
2%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Canadian CPI data, including the 2.8% June 2026 year-over-year print down from 3.2% in May, has anchored trader expectations for the 2026 annual inflation rate near the middle of the target range. Softer gasoline and shelter components, alongside Bank of Canada core measures (CPI-trim and median) near 1.8–2.0%, reflect easing price pressures amid subpar economic growth and a policy rate held at 2.25%. Forward-looking projections from the BoC and consensus forecasts point to further moderation toward 2% by late 2026 or into 2027, tempered by potential energy volatility and lingering trade risks. The market-implied 39.4% probability on the 2.5–2.9% band captures this path of gradual disinflation, with upcoming July CPI data due August 17 offering the next key input into year-end outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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