South Africa's 2026 inflation trajectory reflects competing pressures from recent oil-price shocks tied to Middle East developments and the South African Reserve Bank's 3% target. Headline CPI rose to 3.1% year-over-year in March from 3.0% in February, with analysts now projecting an average near 3.7-4.0% for the full year after upward revisions prompted by elevated energy costs and rand volatility. Market-implied odds show tight clustering around the 2.9-3.2% and >5.0% bands because traders weigh the likelihood that fuel inflation exceeding 18% in Q2 will either fade quickly or persist amid global supply risks. The primary swing factor remains whether administered price increases and wage pressures offset the disinflationary effects of softer food costs, keeping the annual average within or above the upper end of the 2-4% tolerance band.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert<2,6 % 44.0%
2,9-3,2 % 44.0%
>5,0 % 43.7%
4,4-4,7 % 15.0%
$21,308 Vol.
$21,308 Vol.
20. Jan. 2027
<2,6 %
44%
2,6-2,9 %
30%
2,9-3,2 %
44%
3,2-3,5 %
36%
3,5-3,8 %
16%
3,8-4,1 %
22%
4,1-4,4 %
34%
4,4-4,7 %
15%
4,7-5,0 %
22%
>5,0 %
44%
<2,6 % 44.0%
2,9-3,2 % 44.0%
>5,0 % 43.7%
4,4-4,7 % 15.0%
$21,308 Vol.
$21,308 Vol.
20. Jan. 2027
<2,6 %
$260 Vol.
44%
2,6-2,9 %
$275 Vol.
30%
2,9-3,2 %
$362 Vol.
44%
3,2-3,5 %
$363 Vol.
36%
3,5-3,8 %
$465 Vol.
16%
3,8-4,1 %
$655 Vol.
22%
4,1-4,4 %
$532 Vol.
34%
4,4-4,7 %
$12,089 Vol.
15%
4,7-5,0 %
$366 Vol.
22%
>5,0 %
$5,941 Vol.
44%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874South Africa's 2026 inflation trajectory reflects competing pressures from recent oil-price shocks tied to Middle East developments and the South African Reserve Bank's 3% target. Headline CPI rose to 3.1% year-over-year in March from 3.0% in February, with analysts now projecting an average near 3.7-4.0% for the full year after upward revisions prompted by elevated energy costs and rand volatility. Market-implied odds show tight clustering around the 2.9-3.2% and >5.0% bands because traders weigh the likelihood that fuel inflation exceeding 18% in Q2 will either fade quickly or persist amid global supply risks. The primary swing factor remains whether administered price increases and wage pressures offset the disinflationary effects of softer food costs, keeping the annual average within or above the upper end of the 2-4% tolerance band.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Markt eröffnet: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volumen
$21,308Enddatum
20. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874South Africa's 2026 inflation trajectory reflects competing pressures from recent oil-price shocks tied to Middle East developments and the South African Reserve Bank's 3% target. Headline CPI rose to 3.1% year-over-year in March from 3.0% in February, with analysts now projecting an average near 3.7-4.0% for the full year after upward revisions prompted by elevated energy costs and rand volatility. Market-implied odds show tight clustering around the 2.9-3.2% and >5.0% bands because traders weigh the likelihood that fuel inflation exceeding 18% in Q2 will either fade quickly or persist amid global supply risks. The primary swing factor remains whether administered price increases and wage pressures offset the disinflationary effects of softer food costs, keeping the annual average within or above the upper end of the 2-4% tolerance band.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Volumen
$21,308Enddatum
20. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Africa's 2026 inflation trajectory reflects competing pressures from recent oil-price shocks tied to Middle East developments and the South African Reserve Bank's 3% target. Headline CPI rose to 3.1% year-over-year in March from 3.0% in February, with analysts now projecting an average near 3.7-4.0% for the full year after upward revisions prompted by elevated energy costs and rand volatility. Market-implied odds show tight clustering around the 2.9-3.2% and >5.0% bands because traders weigh the likelihood that fuel inflation exceeding 18% in Q2 will either fade quickly or persist amid global supply risks. The primary swing factor remains whether administered price increases and wage pressures offset the disinflationary effects of softer food costs, keeping the annual average within or above the upper end of the 2-4% tolerance band.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen