Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated energy prices, driving Bank of England projections for UK CPI to rise from the current 2.6% June reading toward 3.2% by Q4 2026 before moderating, creating uncertainty around the full-year 2026 average. This temporary pickup stems from direct and indirect effects on fuel, utilities, and goods prices, tempered by labor market slack that limits second-round wage and pricing pressures. Market-implied odds remain closely split between the 4.0-4.4% and 2.5-2.9% ranges because traders weigh varying assumptions on energy price persistence against baseline disinflation trends and the BoE’s 3.75% policy rate stance. Key swing factors include upcoming inflation releases, the September FOMC-equivalent MPC decision, and any further shifts in wholesale gas and oil markets.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJährliche Inflation Großbritanniens 2026
4,0-4,4 % 24%
2,5–2,9 % 23.4%
3,5–3,9 % 11.5%
2,0–2,4 % 8.6%
$53,715 Vol.
$53,715 Vol.
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–1,4 %
4%
1,5–1,9 %
2%
2,0–2,4 %
9%
2,5–2,9 %
23%
3,0–3,4 %
-
3,5–3,9 %
12%
4,0-4,4 %
24%
4,5 %+
8%
4,0-4,4 % 24%
2,5–2,9 % 23.4%
3,5–3,9 % 11.5%
2,0–2,4 % 8.6%
$53,715 Vol.
$53,715 Vol.
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–1,4 %
4%
1,5–1,9 %
2%
2,0–2,4 %
9%
2,5–2,9 %
23%
3,0–3,4 %
-
3,5–3,9 %
12%
4,0-4,4 %
24%
4,5 %+
8%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated energy prices, driving Bank of England projections for UK CPI to rise from the current 2.6% June reading toward 3.2% by Q4 2026 before moderating, creating uncertainty around the full-year 2026 average. This temporary pickup stems from direct and indirect effects on fuel, utilities, and goods prices, tempered by labor market slack that limits second-round wage and pricing pressures. Market-implied odds remain closely split between the 4.0-4.4% and 2.5-2.9% ranges because traders weigh varying assumptions on energy price persistence against baseline disinflation trends and the BoE’s 3.75% policy rate stance. Key swing factors include upcoming inflation releases, the September FOMC-equivalent MPC decision, and any further shifts in wholesale gas and oil markets.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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