The Middle East conflict and associated energy supply disruptions represent the dominant driver behind Polymarket trader consensus favoring 1-2% UK GDP growth for 2026, with that outcome priced at 64.9% implied probability. Higher wholesale gas and electricity costs have weighed on household real incomes and business margins, prompting the IMF, OECD, and Bank of England to downgrade 2026 forecasts into the 0.8-1.1% range after Q1 growth of 0.6% and 2025 annual expansion of 1.3%. Subdued underlying momentum, widening output gaps, and sticky inflation expectations reinforce the 0-1% bucket at 28.0%, while limited scope for rapid recovery keeps probabilities on higher bands below 4%. Upcoming Bank Rate decisions and September CPI data remain key swing factors for these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1-2 % 68.3%
0–1 % 28%
<0 4.5%
2–3 % 3.5%
$72,655 Vol.
$72,655 Vol.
12. Feb. 2027
<0
4%
0–1 %
28%
1-2 %
68%
2–3 %
3%
3-4 %
3%
4-5 %
<1%
5 %+
<1%
1-2 % 68.3%
0–1 % 28%
<0 4.5%
2–3 % 3.5%
$72,655 Vol.
$72,655 Vol.
12. Feb. 2027
<0
$11,068 Vol.
4%
0–1 %
$18,621 Vol.
28%
1-2 %
$23,821 Vol.
68%
2–3 %
$4,159 Vol.
3%
3-4 %
$3,146 Vol.
3%
4-5 %
$8,288 Vol.
<1%
5 %+
$3,552 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Middle East conflict and associated energy supply disruptions represent the dominant driver behind Polymarket trader consensus favoring 1-2% UK GDP growth for 2026, with that outcome priced at 64.9% implied probability. Higher wholesale gas and electricity costs have weighed on household real incomes and business margins, prompting the IMF, OECD, and Bank of England to downgrade 2026 forecasts into the 0.8-1.1% range after Q1 growth of 0.6% and 2025 annual expansion of 1.3%. Subdued underlying momentum, widening output gaps, and sticky inflation expectations reinforce the 0-1% bucket at 28.0%, while limited scope for rapid recovery keeps probabilities on higher bands below 4%. Upcoming Bank Rate decisions and September CPI data remain key swing factors for these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volumen
$72,655Enddatum
12. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Middle East conflict and associated energy supply disruptions represent the dominant driver behind Polymarket trader consensus favoring 1-2% UK GDP growth for 2026, with that outcome priced at 64.9% implied probability. Higher wholesale gas and electricity costs have weighed on household real incomes and business margins, prompting the IMF, OECD, and Bank of England to downgrade 2026 forecasts into the 0.8-1.1% range after Q1 growth of 0.6% and 2025 annual expansion of 1.3%. Subdued underlying momentum, widening output gaps, and sticky inflation expectations reinforce the 0-1% bucket at 28.0%, while limited scope for rapid recovery keeps probabilities on higher bands below 4%. Upcoming Bank Rate decisions and September CPI data remain key swing factors for these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$72,655Enddatum
12. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Middle East conflict and associated energy supply disruptions represent the dominant driver behind Polymarket trader consensus favoring 1-2% UK GDP growth for 2026, with that outcome priced at 64.9% implied probability. Higher wholesale gas and electricity costs have weighed on household real incomes and business margins, prompting the IMF, OECD, and Bank of England to downgrade 2026 forecasts into the 0.8-1.1% range after Q1 growth of 0.6% and 2025 annual expansion of 1.3%. Subdued underlying momentum, widening output gaps, and sticky inflation expectations reinforce the 0-1% bucket at 28.0%, while limited scope for rapid recovery keeps probabilities on higher bands below 4%. Upcoming Bank Rate decisions and September CPI data remain key swing factors for these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen