Recent UK GDP prints have shown resilience, with Q1 2026 expanding 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and Q2 revised up to 0.5%, supported by services and household spending. However, consensus forecasts from the OBR, OECD, Treasury survey, and private economists cluster tightly around 1.1-1.3% for full-year 2026, reflecting expected softening in the second half from elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions, higher borrowing costs, and subdued real incomes. The Bank of England’s 3.75% policy rate and signals of possible further tightening, alongside the upcoming October budget, reinforce downside risks to growth. These factors underpin the 75.1% market-implied probability for 1-2% annual growth, consistent with the latest independent projections.