Recent quarterly data showing a slowdown to 0.4% QoQ GDP growth in Q2 2026, following 0.6% in Q1, has reinforced trader consensus around the 1-2% annual outcome for full-year 2026 at 66.7% implied probability. Independent forecasts from the OECD, EY, OBR, and Vanguard cluster near 0.9-1.1%, citing moderating consumption amid elevated energy costs, persistent inflation above target, and tighter financial conditions. The secondary 0-1% bin at 25.5% reflects downside risks from labor market softening and geopolitical pressures, while higher-growth outcomes remain low-probability given subdued business surveys and productivity challenges. Upcoming releases, including final Q2 figures and Bank of England communications, could refine these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1-2 % 66.7%
0–1 % 26%
<0 5.0%
2–3 % 4.1%
$72,655 Vol.
$72,655 Vol.
12. Feb. 2027
<0
5%
0–1 %
26%
1-2 %
67%
2–3 %
4%
3-4 %
2%
4-5 %
<1%
5 %+
<1%
1-2 % 66.7%
0–1 % 26%
<0 5.0%
2–3 % 4.1%
$72,655 Vol.
$72,655 Vol.
12. Feb. 2027
<0
$11,068 Vol.
5%
0–1 %
$18,621 Vol.
26%
1-2 %
$23,821 Vol.
67%
2–3 %
$4,159 Vol.
4%
3-4 %
$3,146 Vol.
2%
4-5 %
$8,288 Vol.
<1%
5 %+
$3,552 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly data showing a slowdown to 0.4% QoQ GDP growth in Q2 2026, following 0.6% in Q1, has reinforced trader consensus around the 1-2% annual outcome for full-year 2026 at 66.7% implied probability. Independent forecasts from the OECD, EY, OBR, and Vanguard cluster near 0.9-1.1%, citing moderating consumption amid elevated energy costs, persistent inflation above target, and tighter financial conditions. The secondary 0-1% bin at 25.5% reflects downside risks from labor market softening and geopolitical pressures, while higher-growth outcomes remain low-probability given subdued business surveys and productivity challenges. Upcoming releases, including final Q2 figures and Bank of England communications, could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volumen
$72,655Enddatum
12. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly data showing a slowdown to 0.4% QoQ GDP growth in Q2 2026, following 0.6% in Q1, has reinforced trader consensus around the 1-2% annual outcome for full-year 2026 at 66.7% implied probability. Independent forecasts from the OECD, EY, OBR, and Vanguard cluster near 0.9-1.1%, citing moderating consumption amid elevated energy costs, persistent inflation above target, and tighter financial conditions. The secondary 0-1% bin at 25.5% reflects downside risks from labor market softening and geopolitical pressures, while higher-growth outcomes remain low-probability given subdued business surveys and productivity challenges. Upcoming releases, including final Q2 figures and Bank of England communications, could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$72,655Enddatum
12. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent quarterly data showing a slowdown to 0.4% QoQ GDP growth in Q2 2026, following 0.6% in Q1, has reinforced trader consensus around the 1-2% annual outcome for full-year 2026 at 66.7% implied probability. Independent forecasts from the OECD, EY, OBR, and Vanguard cluster near 0.9-1.1%, citing moderating consumption amid elevated energy costs, persistent inflation above target, and tighter financial conditions. The secondary 0-1% bin at 25.5% reflects downside risks from labor market softening and geopolitical pressures, while higher-growth outcomes remain low-probability given subdued business surveys and productivity challenges. Upcoming releases, including final Q2 figures and Bank of England communications, could refine these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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