Robust U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. Recent nowcasts, including the Atlanta Fed’s 5% Q3 estimate and consensus projections from the OECD, ABA, and Goldman Sachs, point to full-year expansion of 2.2–2.8%, fueled by AI-related capital spending, steady consumer outlays, and a balanced labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3%. Elevated but moderating inflation and resilient business investment further support positive growth momentum through year-end. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a sharp correction in AI equity valuations, renewed Middle East energy shocks driving oil above $100, or abrupt policy shifts that curb domestic demand.