Robust Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, reported April 30 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, has driven the 85.3% market-implied probability for no negative GDP growth in 2026, rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace and signaling renewed expansion amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven investment. Reinforcing this trader consensus, April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%, while the Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% on April 29, citing balanced risks. Full-year forecasts cluster around 2-2.5% from sources like the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters. Upcoming May CPI, jobs data, and June FOMC could influence sentiment, though current pricing embeds low recession risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNegatives BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026?
Negatives BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$26,380 Vol.
$26,380 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
Ja
$26,380 Vol.
$26,380 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, reported April 30 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, has driven the 85.3% market-implied probability for no negative GDP growth in 2026, rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace and signaling renewed expansion amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven investment. Reinforcing this trader consensus, April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%, while the Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% on April 29, citing balanced risks. Full-year forecasts cluster around 2-2.5% from sources like the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters. Upcoming May CPI, jobs data, and June FOMC could influence sentiment, though current pricing embeds low recession risk.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$26,380Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, reported April 30 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, has driven the 85.3% market-implied probability for no negative GDP growth in 2026, rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace and signaling renewed expansion amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven investment. Reinforcing this trader consensus, April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%, while the Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% on April 29, citing balanced risks. Full-year forecasts cluster around 2-2.5% from sources like the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters. Upcoming May CPI, jobs data, and June FOMC could influence sentiment, though current pricing embeds low recession risk.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$26,380Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, reported April 30 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, has driven the 85.3% market-implied probability for no negative GDP growth in 2026, rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace and signaling renewed expansion amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven investment. Reinforcing this trader consensus, April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%, while the Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% on April 29, citing balanced risks. Full-year forecasts cluster around 2-2.5% from sources like the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters. Upcoming May CPI, jobs data, and June FOMC could influence sentiment, though current pricing embeds low recession risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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