Recent forecasts point to Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP expanding 0.4–0.5% quarter-over-quarter (annualized near 1.7%), driven by recovering exports and steady private consumption and capital expenditure amid resilient domestic demand. With the two leading Polymarket bands (0.9–1.1% and 0.6–0.8%) nearly tied, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether export gains and policy support will fully offset emerging energy-price pressures from Middle East tensions. Official preliminary data due May 19 will resolve the market, and any shortfall in consumption or capex could shift odds toward the lower bands.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert0,3–0,5 % 21.7%
0,9–1,1 % 15.0%
1,2 %+ 4.9%
-0,3– -0,1 % 4.3%
NEU
NEU
19. Mai 2026
≤-0,4 %
1%
-0,3– -0,1 %
4%
0,0–0,2 %
2%
0,3–0,5 %
22%
0,6–0,8 %
32%
0,9–1,1 %
32%
1,2 %+
5%
0,3–0,5 % 21.7%
0,9–1,1 % 15.0%
1,2 %+ 4.9%
-0,3– -0,1 % 4.3%
NEU
NEU
19. Mai 2026
≤-0,4 %
$1,057 Vol.
1%
-0,3– -0,1 %
$650 Vol.
4%
0,0–0,2 %
$994 Vol.
2%
0,3–0,5 %
$786 Vol.
22%
0,6–0,8 %
$447 Vol.
32%
0,9–1,1 %
$683 Vol.
32%
1,2 %+
$2,699 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent forecasts point to Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP expanding 0.4–0.5% quarter-over-quarter (annualized near 1.7%), driven by recovering exports and steady private consumption and capital expenditure amid resilient domestic demand. With the two leading Polymarket bands (0.9–1.1% and 0.6–0.8%) nearly tied, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether export gains and policy support will fully offset emerging energy-price pressures from Middle East tensions. Official preliminary data due May 19 will resolve the market, and any shortfall in consumption or capex could shift odds toward the lower bands.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Markt eröffnet: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volumen
$7,317Enddatum
19. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent forecasts point to Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP expanding 0.4–0.5% quarter-over-quarter (annualized near 1.7%), driven by recovering exports and steady private consumption and capital expenditure amid resilient domestic demand. With the two leading Polymarket bands (0.9–1.1% and 0.6–0.8%) nearly tied, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether export gains and policy support will fully offset emerging energy-price pressures from Middle East tensions. Official preliminary data due May 19 will resolve the market, and any shortfall in consumption or capex could shift odds toward the lower bands.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volumen
$7,317Enddatum
19. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent forecasts point to Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP expanding 0.4–0.5% quarter-over-quarter (annualized near 1.7%), driven by recovering exports and steady private consumption and capital expenditure amid resilient domestic demand. With the two leading Polymarket bands (0.9–1.1% and 0.6–0.8%) nearly tied, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether export gains and policy support will fully offset emerging energy-price pressures from Middle East tensions. Official preliminary data due May 19 will resolve the market, and any shortfall in consumption or capex could shift odds toward the lower bands.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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