Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.4% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth falling in the 1.9%–2.2% YoY band, reflecting resilient high-frequency data amid tight monetary policy. April's manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 from March's contractionary 49, while services PMI climbed to 52.3, signaling accelerating expansion; March industrial production edged up 0.1% month-on-month, and April trade surplus hit a near three-year high. The Banco Central do Brasil's May 7 Selic rate cut to 14.50%—its second consecutive 25 basis-point reduction—bolsters moderate growth expectations aligned with IMF's 1.9% full-year forecast, though elevated rates cap upside risks. IBGE's official Q1 release, due around June 1, remains the key catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertBrasilianisches BIP-Wachstum in Q1 2026?
Brasilianisches BIP-Wachstum in Q1 2026?
1,9 %–2,2 % 53.4%
1,5 %–1,8 % 27%
2,3 %–2,6 % 8.8%
≥2,7 % 4.7%
$20,707 Vol.
$20,707 Vol.
29. Mai 2026
<0,7 %
3%
0,7 %–1,0 %
2%
1,1 %–1,4 %
4%
1,5 %–1,8 %
27%
1,9 %–2,2 %
52%
2,3 %–2,6 %
29%
≥2,7 %
10%
1,9 %–2,2 % 53.4%
1,5 %–1,8 % 27%
2,3 %–2,6 % 8.8%
≥2,7 % 4.7%
$20,707 Vol.
$20,707 Vol.
29. Mai 2026
<0,7 %
$14,389 Vol.
3%
0,7 %–1,0 %
$660 Vol.
2%
1,1 %–1,4 %
$506 Vol.
4%
1,5 %–1,8 %
$1,010 Vol.
27%
1,9 %–2,2 %
$1,631 Vol.
52%
2,3 %–2,6 %
$684 Vol.
29%
≥2,7 %
$1,827 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.4% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth falling in the 1.9%–2.2% YoY band, reflecting resilient high-frequency data amid tight monetary policy. April's manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 from March's contractionary 49, while services PMI climbed to 52.3, signaling accelerating expansion; March industrial production edged up 0.1% month-on-month, and April trade surplus hit a near three-year high. The Banco Central do Brasil's May 7 Selic rate cut to 14.50%—its second consecutive 25 basis-point reduction—bolsters moderate growth expectations aligned with IMF's 1.9% full-year forecast, though elevated rates cap upside risks. IBGE's official Q1 release, due around June 1, remains the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volumen
$20,707Enddatum
29. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.4% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth falling in the 1.9%–2.2% YoY band, reflecting resilient high-frequency data amid tight monetary policy. April's manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 from March's contractionary 49, while services PMI climbed to 52.3, signaling accelerating expansion; March industrial production edged up 0.1% month-on-month, and April trade surplus hit a near three-year high. The Banco Central do Brasil's May 7 Selic rate cut to 14.50%—its second consecutive 25 basis-point reduction—bolsters moderate growth expectations aligned with IMF's 1.9% full-year forecast, though elevated rates cap upside risks. IBGE's official Q1 release, due around June 1, remains the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$20,707Enddatum
29. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.4% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth falling in the 1.9%–2.2% YoY band, reflecting resilient high-frequency data amid tight monetary policy. April's manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 from March's contractionary 49, while services PMI climbed to 52.3, signaling accelerating expansion; March industrial production edged up 0.1% month-on-month, and April trade surplus hit a near three-year high. The Banco Central do Brasil's May 7 Selic rate cut to 14.50%—its second consecutive 25 basis-point reduction—bolsters moderate growth expectations aligned with IMF's 1.9% full-year forecast, though elevated rates cap upside risks. IBGE's official Q1 release, due around June 1, remains the key catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen