Recent upward revisions to RBI inflation forecasts for FY27, now centered around 5.0-5.1%, combined with July 2026 CPI at 4.45% (up from 4.38% in June), have anchored trader sentiment toward the 4.50%+ outcome at 79.5% implied probability. Persistent pressures from Middle East-related energy price surges, food inflation, and rupee weakness have lifted near-term readings and prompted the central bank to hold the repo rate at 5.25% while scaling back expectations for cuts. With consensus economist projections for the fiscal year averaging near 4.8%, market-implied odds reflect these verified data releases and policy communications rather than lower-range scenarios. Upcoming August CPI and the next RBI meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4,50 %+ 80%
3,75 % bis 4,49 % 13.3%
<0,75 % 3.7%
3,00 % bis 3,74 % 3.1%
$78,319 Vol.
$78,319 Vol.
12. Jan. 2027
<0,75 %
4%
0,75 % bis 1,49 %
<1%
1,50 % bis 2,24 %
1%
2,25 % bis 2,99 %
1%
3,00 % bis 3,74 %
3%
3,75 % bis 4,49 %
13%
4,50 %+
80%
4,50 %+ 80%
3,75 % bis 4,49 % 13.3%
<0,75 % 3.7%
3,00 % bis 3,74 % 3.1%
$78,319 Vol.
$78,319 Vol.
12. Jan. 2027
<0,75 %
$1,769 Vol.
4%
0,75 % bis 1,49 %
$1,191 Vol.
<1%
1,50 % bis 2,24 %
$1,265 Vol.
1%
2,25 % bis 2,99 %
$24,989 Vol.
1%
3,00 % bis 3,74 %
$2,081 Vol.
3%
3,75 % bis 4,49 %
$29,540 Vol.
13%
4,50 %+
$17,483 Vol.
80%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent upward revisions to RBI inflation forecasts for FY27, now centered around 5.0-5.1%, combined with July 2026 CPI at 4.45% (up from 4.38% in June), have anchored trader sentiment toward the 4.50%+ outcome at 79.5% implied probability. Persistent pressures from Middle East-related energy price surges, food inflation, and rupee weakness have lifted near-term readings and prompted the central bank to hold the repo rate at 5.25% while scaling back expectations for cuts. With consensus economist projections for the fiscal year averaging near 4.8%, market-implied odds reflect these verified data releases and policy communications rather than lower-range scenarios. Upcoming August CPI and the next RBI meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$78,319Enddatum
12. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent upward revisions to RBI inflation forecasts for FY27, now centered around 5.0-5.1%, combined with July 2026 CPI at 4.45% (up from 4.38% in June), have anchored trader sentiment toward the 4.50%+ outcome at 79.5% implied probability. Persistent pressures from Middle East-related energy price surges, food inflation, and rupee weakness have lifted near-term readings and prompted the central bank to hold the repo rate at 5.25% while scaling back expectations for cuts. With consensus economist projections for the fiscal year averaging near 4.8%, market-implied odds reflect these verified data releases and policy communications rather than lower-range scenarios. Upcoming August CPI and the next RBI meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volumen
$78,319Enddatum
12. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent upward revisions to RBI inflation forecasts for FY27, now centered around 5.0-5.1%, combined with July 2026 CPI at 4.45% (up from 4.38% in June), have anchored trader sentiment toward the 4.50%+ outcome at 79.5% implied probability. Persistent pressures from Middle East-related energy price surges, food inflation, and rupee weakness have lifted near-term readings and prompted the central bank to hold the repo rate at 5.25% while scaling back expectations for cuts. With consensus economist projections for the fiscal year averaging near 4.8%, market-implied odds reflect these verified data releases and policy communications rather than lower-range scenarios. Upcoming August CPI and the next RBI meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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