Narendra Modi’s BJP-led NDA coalition holds a stable parliamentary majority following strong performances in recent state elections, including the 2026 West Bengal victory, which has reinforced its institutional position ahead of the 2029 general election. Ongoing protests by opposition parties and youth groups over Special Intensive Revision of voter rolls have raised questions about electoral processes and contributed to modest declines in Modi’s personal approval ratings, yet these developments have not triggered any no-confidence motion, coalition defections, or other mechanisms capable of removing him from office within the next three months. Traders’ near-certain consensus on “No” reflects the absence of credible near-term pathways for an early exit, given constitutional term structures and the government’s continued control of legislative arithmetic. Late-breaking health developments, an unforeseen internal party realignment, or a sudden loss of alliance support remain the primary low-probability scenarios that could still shift the outcome before December 31, 2026.