Recent Middle East conflicts have driven oil prices back toward $100 per barrel, elevating eurozone energy costs and pushing ECB staff projections for 2026 headline inflation to around 3.0%. Following the June 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, the July Governing Council meeting left rates unchanged but featured hawkish commentary from President Lagarde on the incomplete pass-through of energy shocks. This reinforced market expectations for another tightening step, aligning with trader consensus pricing an 85.5% probability of a further 25-basis-point increase at the September 9–10 decision. Lower-probability outcomes for no change or larger moves reflect uncertainty over whether incoming inflation and wage data will confirm the need for additional tightening within the ECB’s 2% medium-term mandate.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertErhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 86%
Keine Änderung 13%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte 1.7%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
$179,390 Vol.
$179,390 Vol.
10. Sep. 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung
13%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
86%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
2%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 86%
Keine Änderung 13%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte 1.7%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
$179,390 Vol.
$179,390 Vol.
10. Sep. 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$13,929 Vol.
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$23,828 Vol.
1%
Keine Änderung
$53,242 Vol.
13%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$61,721 Vol.
86%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$26,669 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent Middle East conflicts have driven oil prices back toward $100 per barrel, elevating eurozone energy costs and pushing ECB staff projections for 2026 headline inflation to around 3.0%. Following the June 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, the July Governing Council meeting left rates unchanged but featured hawkish commentary from President Lagarde on the incomplete pass-through of energy shocks. This reinforced market expectations for another tightening step, aligning with trader consensus pricing an 85.5% probability of a further 25-basis-point increase at the September 9–10 decision. Lower-probability outcomes for no change or larger moves reflect uncertainty over whether incoming inflation and wage data will confirm the need for additional tightening within the ECB’s 2% medium-term mandate.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ET
Volumen
$179,390Enddatum
10. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent Middle East conflicts have driven oil prices back toward $100 per barrel, elevating eurozone energy costs and pushing ECB staff projections for 2026 headline inflation to around 3.0%. Following the June 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, the July Governing Council meeting left rates unchanged but featured hawkish commentary from President Lagarde on the incomplete pass-through of energy shocks. This reinforced market expectations for another tightening step, aligning with trader consensus pricing an 85.5% probability of a further 25-basis-point increase at the September 9–10 decision. Lower-probability outcomes for no change or larger moves reflect uncertainty over whether incoming inflation and wage data will confirm the need for additional tightening within the ECB’s 2% medium-term mandate.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$179,390Enddatum
10. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East conflicts have driven oil prices back toward $100 per barrel, elevating eurozone energy costs and pushing ECB staff projections for 2026 headline inflation to around 3.0%. Following the June 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, the July Governing Council meeting left rates unchanged but featured hawkish commentary from President Lagarde on the incomplete pass-through of energy shocks. This reinforced market expectations for another tightening step, aligning with trader consensus pricing an 85.5% probability of a further 25-basis-point increase at the September 9–10 decision. Lower-probability outcomes for no change or larger moves reflect uncertainty over whether incoming inflation and wage data will confirm the need for additional tightening within the ECB’s 2% medium-term mandate.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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