Recent July Core PCE data held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus and extending the streak above the Fed’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month, with the monthly core reading rising 0.2%. This outcome, alongside firmer headline PCE at 3.7%, has kept trader focus on persistent services and housing price pressures amid mixed consumer spending signals. The closely bunched probabilities around 3.2–3.3% reflect uncertainty over whether August will show further stabilization or modest cooling ahead of the September 30 release and the FOMC’s September 16 meeting. Market-implied odds embed expectations for sticky underlying inflation near recent levels, tempered by potential moderation in goods prices and any fresh signals from Jackson Hole commentary on the policy path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert3,3 % 24%
3,2 % 19%
3,1 % 11%
3,4 % 10%
NEU
NEU
30. Sep. 2026
≤3,0 %
6%
3,1 %
11%
3,2 %
19%
3,3 %
24%
3,4 %
10%
3,5 %
8%
3,6 %+
9%
3,3 % 24%
3,2 % 19%
3,1 % 11%
3,4 % 10%
NEU
NEU
30. Sep. 2026
≤3,0 %
$112 Vol.
6%
3,1 %
$127 Vol.
11%
3,2 %
$147 Vol.
19%
3,3 %
$180 Vol.
24%
3,4 %
$72 Vol.
10%
3,5 %
$78 Vol.
8%
3,6 %+
$83 Vol.
9%
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July Core PCE data held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus and extending the streak above the Fed’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month, with the monthly core reading rising 0.2%. This outcome, alongside firmer headline PCE at 3.7%, has kept trader focus on persistent services and housing price pressures amid mixed consumer spending signals. The closely bunched probabilities around 3.2–3.3% reflect uncertainty over whether August will show further stabilization or modest cooling ahead of the September 30 release and the FOMC’s September 16 meeting. Market-implied odds embed expectations for sticky underlying inflation near recent levels, tempered by potential moderation in goods prices and any fresh signals from Jackson Hole commentary on the policy path.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ET
Volumen
$799Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July Core PCE data held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus and extending the streak above the Fed’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month, with the monthly core reading rising 0.2%. This outcome, alongside firmer headline PCE at 3.7%, has kept trader focus on persistent services and housing price pressures amid mixed consumer spending signals. The closely bunched probabilities around 3.2–3.3% reflect uncertainty over whether August will show further stabilization or modest cooling ahead of the September 30 release and the FOMC’s September 16 meeting. Market-implied odds embed expectations for sticky underlying inflation near recent levels, tempered by potential moderation in goods prices and any fresh signals from Jackson Hole commentary on the policy path.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$799Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent July Core PCE data held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus and extending the streak above the Fed’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month, with the monthly core reading rising 0.2%. This outcome, alongside firmer headline PCE at 3.7%, has kept trader focus on persistent services and housing price pressures amid mixed consumer spending signals. The closely bunched probabilities around 3.2–3.3% reflect uncertainty over whether August will show further stabilization or modest cooling ahead of the September 30 release and the FOMC’s September 16 meeting. Market-implied odds embed expectations for sticky underlying inflation near recent levels, tempered by potential moderation in goods prices and any fresh signals from Jackson Hole commentary on the policy path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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