Recent Japan core CPI readings, which exclude fresh food, have held near 1.6% year-over-year through June 2026, remaining below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target amid government energy subsidies that offset higher oil prices from Middle East tensions. The BoJ trimmed its FY2026 inflation outlook while noting resilient but contained demand-driven pressures, with core-core measures (excluding food and energy) near 1.7-2.5%. These trends, alongside gradual monetary policy normalization to a 1% policy rate, underpin trader consensus favoring outcomes at or below 2.4% as the most probable path for the 2026 annual figure. Upcoming data releases and any subsidy adjustments represent key near-term swing factors.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert≤1,9 % 50.2%
2.0-2.4% 35%
3.0-3.4% 8.0%
2,5-2,9 % 1.3%
$35,793 Vol.
$35,793 Vol.
≤1,9 %
50%
2.0-2.4%
35%
2,5-2,9 %
1%
3.0-3.4%
8%
3,5-3,9 %
<1%
4.0%+
1%
≤1,9 % 50.2%
2.0-2.4% 35%
3.0-3.4% 8.0%
2,5-2,9 % 1.3%
$35,793 Vol.
$35,793 Vol.
≤1,9 %
50%
2.0-2.4%
35%
2,5-2,9 %
1%
3.0-3.4%
8%
3,5-3,9 %
<1%
4.0%+
1%
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan core CPI readings, which exclude fresh food, have held near 1.6% year-over-year through June 2026, remaining below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target amid government energy subsidies that offset higher oil prices from Middle East tensions. The BoJ trimmed its FY2026 inflation outlook while noting resilient but contained demand-driven pressures, with core-core measures (excluding food and energy) near 1.7-2.5%. These trends, alongside gradual monetary policy normalization to a 1% policy rate, underpin trader consensus favoring outcomes at or below 2.4% as the most probable path for the 2026 annual figure. Upcoming data releases and any subsidy adjustments represent key near-term swing factors.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


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