Recent moderation in Japan's core CPI readings, with the measure excluding fresh food at 1.6% in June 2026 and Tokyo core at 1.9% in July, reflects government fuel subsidies and softer food prices that have kept readings below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for multiple months. Persistent wage growth, yen weakness, and underlying "core-core" pressures near 1.7-2.0% support the tight contest between the ≤1.9% (51.1% implied) and 2.0-2.4% (44.0%) bands. Traders monitor BoJ communications, upcoming inflation releases, and energy cost trajectories as key swing factors for fiscal 2026 outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert≤1,9 % 51.2%
2.0-2.4% 44%
2,5-2,9 % 1.3%
3.0-3.4% <1%
$36,520 Vol.
$36,520 Vol.
≤1,9 %
51%
2.0-2.4%
44%
2,5-2,9 %
1%
3.0-3.4%
1%
3,5-3,9 %
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
≤1,9 % 51.2%
2.0-2.4% 44%
2,5-2,9 % 1.3%
3.0-3.4% <1%
$36,520 Vol.
$36,520 Vol.
≤1,9 %
51%
2.0-2.4%
44%
2,5-2,9 %
1%
3.0-3.4%
1%
3,5-3,9 %
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation in Japan's core CPI readings, with the measure excluding fresh food at 1.6% in June 2026 and Tokyo core at 1.9% in July, reflects government fuel subsidies and softer food prices that have kept readings below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for multiple months. Persistent wage growth, yen weakness, and underlying "core-core" pressures near 1.7-2.0% support the tight contest between the ≤1.9% (51.1% implied) and 2.0-2.4% (44.0%) bands. Traders monitor BoJ communications, upcoming inflation releases, and energy cost trajectories as key swing factors for fiscal 2026 outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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